Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Fed Jitters Impact BTC-Spot ETF Market and BTC

BTC-spot ETF Market Eyes Day Five of Net Outflows

Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 5.02% on Tuesday (April 30). Reversing a 1.13% gain from Monday (April 29), BTC ended April down 15.01% to $60,675.

Investor angst toward the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference impacted buyer demand for BTC-spot ETFs and BTC.

Recent US inflation and employment cost figures impacted investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. On Thursday, employment cost – wages increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2024. In Q4 2023, employment cost – wages also rose by 1.1%, an upward revision from 0.9%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates at 5.50% in September rose from 42.5% to 53.3% on Tuesday (April 30). The figures reflected the market reaction to the Q1 2024 employment costs.

Fading investor expectations of multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts also impacted buyer demand for BTC-spot ETFs.

According to Farside Investors, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $51.6 million on Monday (April 29). Significantly,

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw zero net flows for the fourth consecutive session.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows ($6.9 million) for the third successive session.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF had net outflows of $31.3 million, more than Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
• GBTC recorded net outflows of $24.7 million.

Moreover, US BTC-spot ETF market conditions worsened on Tuesday (April 30).

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces First Monthly Outflows

The US BTC-spot ETF market is on target for its first month of net outflows since launch (January 11). Flow trends for Tuesday (April 30) aligned with market risk aversion across the global financial markets. According to Farside Investors,

• GBTC saw net outflows increase to $93.2 million.
• FBTC had net outflows of $35.3 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded net outflows of $34.3 million.
• Excluding flow data for IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $161.6 million.
• Barring an unexpected surge in IBIT net inflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market will extend its outflow streak to five sessions.
• Excluding the flow data for IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $344.0 million in April.

Hong Kong BTC and ETH-spot ETFs failed to impress crypto market investors on the first day of trading. Nevertheless, the numbers were positive in relative terms.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart shared trading volume numbers for Day 1. HK BTC-spot ETFs saw trading volumes of $9.74 million, with ETH-spot ETFs recording trading volumes of $3.01 million. ETH ended the Tuesday session down 6.29% to $3,014.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC break above the $60,365 resistance level would support a move to the $64,000 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring the $69,000 resistance level into view.

On Wednesday, US labor market data, the FOMC Press Conference, and BTC-spot ETF flow data from the US need consideration.

Conversely, a BTC drop below the $58,500 handle could signal a fall toward the $52,884 support level.

With a 35.93 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could drop to the $58,500 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $3,033 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the $3,244 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. Selling pressure could intensify at the $3,244 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $2,800 handle could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA. A break below the 200-day EMA would bring the $2,664 support level into view.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 39.13 suggests an ETH fall to the $2,800 handle before entering oversold territory.