EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $105; Eyes on US NFP Report

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Jul 4, 2024, 07:23 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

German Factory Orders are forecasted to drop by 1.6% in July.
UK Parliamentary Elections and Construction PMI reports will influence GBP/USD.
ECB President Lagarde’s speech will impact EUR/USD market movements.

In this article:

EUR/USD

-0.68%

GBP/USD

-0.41%

Market Overview

On July 3, key economic indicators impacted the currency markets. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reported an increase of 150K jobs, below the forecasted 163K but slightly down from the previous 157K. Additionally, unemployment claims rose to 238K, higher than the expected 234K.

The Final Services PMI came in at 55.3, just above the forecasted 55.0. However, the ISM Services PMI dropped significantly to 48.8, well below the expected 52.6, indicating contraction. These figures suggest a mixed economic outlook for the U.S., potentially impacting the Dollar Index, which is currently at $105.274, up 0.01%.

Events Ahead

Looking forward to July 4, German Factory Orders are forecasted to drop by 1.6% compared to the previous month’s -0.6%. The UK Parliamentary Elections and various economic reports, including Construction PMI and Housing Equity Withdrawal, will also be closely watched. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.27484, up 0.02%, and these events could significantly impact its movement.

In the Eurozone, the ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be crucial. The EUR/USD is trading at $1.07917, up 0.01%. Overall, the mixed economic data from the U.S. and upcoming events in Europe and the UK suggest potential volatility in the currency markets.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.274, up 0.01%. The 4-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $105.409. Immediate resistance is at $105.604, followed by $105.816 and $106.059. Support levels are $105.052, $104.893, and $104.733.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $105.613 and the 200 EMA at $105.500, suggesting a bearish trend below the pivot point. The Dollar Index remains bearish below $105.409, but a break above this level could shift the bias to bullish.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.07917, up 0.01%. The 4-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $1.07802. Immediate resistance is at $1.08172, followed by $1.08324 and $1.08463. Support levels are $1.07628, $1.07458, and $1.07222.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $1.07502 and the 200 EMA at $1.07445, suggesting a bullish trend. EUR/USD remains bullish above $1.07802, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.27484, up 0.02%. The 4-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $1.27344. Immediate resistance is at $1.27769, followed by $1.27936 and $1.28132. Support levels are $1.27138, $1.26915, and $1.26615.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $1.26901 and the 200 EMA at $1.26863, suggesting a bullish trend. GBP/USD remains bullish above $1.27344, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.