EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Middle Around Against The Greenback

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro has initially fell during the week but then turned around to show signs of life again as we are threatening the 50-week EMA. That being said, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy. It’s sideways trading probably for most of the year because while we do know that the European Central Bank is likely to cut rates in the next month or two, the reality is everybody expects the Federal Reserve to start doing the same thing in a couple of months as well.

Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen, but at this point it looks like we are just middling around trying to sort out what range we want to be in for the year. I suspect that range will be the 1.1250 level above and the 1.05 level underneath.

There is also an inner consolidation range between 1.07 and 1.10. We are testing the 1.08 level, so we are pretty close to the middle. We probably grind a bit higher from here, but I would not expect much. I don’t think that the odds favor the euro suddenly crushing the US dollar because it would take a major risk on move overall. And of course, there are plenty of geopolitical factors out there that can have people running for the greenback. So, I think you just get a lot of push and pull here.

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