Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Dips Below $2310; Further Sell-offs Ahead?

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Published: Apr 23, 2024, 06:46 UTC

Key Points:

Gold price declines to $2309.35, a 0.63% drop amid easing geopolitical risks and strong USD.
U.S. interest rates remain high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Economic data today could influence Fed's rate decisions, potentially impacting gold's price trajectory.

Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Dips Below $2310; Further Sell-offs Ahead?

Market Overview

Gold prices experienced a downturn in Tuesday’s Asian trading, continuing their downward trajectory from the previous day. The yellow metal shed 0.63% to reach $2309.35 per ounce. This decline reflects a significant pullback from the April highs of approximately $2,430 per ounce, illustrating a substantial easing in market tension.

Impact of Geopolitical De-escalation on Gold Prices

Recent developments suggest a cooling of the heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, diminishing the immediate threat of escalation. This shift has led to a reduction in the risk premium historically associated with gold during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

The apparent reluctance of Tehran to retaliate immediately against Israeli strikes has played a crucial role in this dynamic, encouraging a move away from safe-haven assets.

Influence of U.S. Monetary Policy on XAU/USD

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the anticipation of persistently high U.S. interest rates are exerting additional pressure on gold prices. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance in response to ongoing inflation concerns is likely to sustain elevated interest rates, which traditionally dampen the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Key U.S. Economic Indicators to Watch

Today’s economic calendar features several critical U.S. releases that could influence the XAU/USD trajectory:

At 13:45 ET, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly improve to 52.0 from 51.9.
Flash Services PMI is also anticipated to tick higher to 52.0 from 51.7.
New Home Sales data, due at 14:00 ET, are projected to rise from 662K to 668K, providing further insights into the economic backdrop.
The Richmond Manufacturing Index, another indicator at 14:00 ET, is forecasted to improve to -7 from -11, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing activity.

These data points will offer valuable insights into the broader economic environment, influencing Fed policy decisions and, consequently, the XAU/USD price forecast.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold – Chart

Today, gold experienced a downtrend, trading at $2309.35, which marks a 0.63% decline. The precious metal broke below its pivotal level of $2324.85 and is currently positioned below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2355.14, signaling a bearish trend. If the price remains below this level, it could further confirm the selling trend indicated by the recent bearish cross of the 50 EMA.

Key resistance levels are set at $2359.42, $2403.98, and $2431.98, which might limit any potential upward movement. Conversely, supports are established at $2264.53, $2210.30, and $2156.07, suggesting possible stabilization zones if declines continue.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for Gold remains bearish below the pivot point of $2324.85. A move above this threshold could change the market sentiment to a more bullish bias.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.