Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russia Production Cuts & Mideast Tensions; Buy Signal

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Updated: Mar 28, 2024, 09:47 UTC

Key Points:

Russia's deeper production cuts signal tighter global oil supplies, pushing Brent towards $100.
JPMorgan forecasts Brent could hit $100 by September, with U.S. production as a key variable.
Geopolitical tensions and Middle Eastern supply disruptions further underpin oil price support.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russia Production Cuts & Mideast Tensions; Buy Signal

Market Overview

As we move through the first quarter of 2024, oil prices have seen a notable increase, primarily driven by expectations of tighter global supplies, particularly with Russia announcing deeper production cuts. This development, alongside sustained production curbs by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members, sets the stage for potentially higher oil prices.

Analysts from JPMorgan highlight the significant impact of these production adjustments, suggesting a pathway for Brent to potentially reach $100 a barrel by September. However, the U.S. market presents a complex challenge, with high domestic production potentially offsetting some of the bullish sentiments for oil prices.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Middle East add another layer of support for oil prices.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) sees a slight uptick to $1.748, a 0.34% increase, reflecting a cautious optimism among traders. Currently above its pivot point at $1.7391, the market eyes immediate resistance levels at $1.7869, $1.8298, and $1.8756.

Should momentum wane, supports at $1.6990, $1.6588, and $1.6096 offer fallbacks. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $1.8048 and $1.8847, respectively, suggest a challenging path ahead for bulls.

A confirmed break below the pivot could prompt a bearish trend towards $1.6990, while surpassing it might shift sentiment to bullish, signaling nuanced market dynamics for Natural Gas.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL‘s recent uptick to $81.68, a 0.11% increase, positions it for potential gains. Positioned above its pivot at $81.39, USOIL faces immediate resistance levels at $82.33, $83.10, and $83.94, which could limit upward movement.

Conversely, supports are established at $80.40, $79.39, and $78.46, providing cushions for any pullbacks. With the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $81.15 and a bullish trendline in play, the outlook for USOIL remains optimistic above the pivot point.

However, a drop below $81.39 could trigger a notable sell-off, marking a critical juncture for future price directions.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL‘s slight increase to $85.67, a 0.08% gain, suggests a cautious optimism in the market. Positioned just below the pivot point of $85.92, it faces resistance at $86.58, $87.29, and $88.14, challenging further ascents. On the downside, supports at $84.69, $83.94, and $83.20 could stabilize declines.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $85.44 and $83.62, respectively, underscore a bullish underpinning, yet a critical resistance near the pivot point may cap gains.

A decisive move above $85.92 could catalyze a bullish trajectory, while failure to breach this level might precipitate a sell-off, indicating a mixed outlook for UKOIL.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.