Five Things to Know In Crypto This Week: BTC and ETH Diverge on ETF Flow Trends

BTC Faced Selling Pressure as Mt. Gox Sent BTC to Trustee Exchanges

Bitcoin (BTC) was up 0.47 to $67,969 from Monday, July 22 to Saturday, July 27.

Early in the week, Mt. Gox transfers to trustee crypto exchanges Kraken and Bitstamp spooked investors.

News of Mt. Gox sending 5,106 BTC to Bitstamp for repayment to creditors contributed to a BTC fall to a weekly low of $63,486. Additionally, Mt. Gox sent 48,641 BTC to Kraken in July to repay creditors.

However, the crypto market has not experienced an oversupply from Mt. Gox’s creditors to impact BTC price trends.

Several other factors likely contributed to the BTC price recovery, including:

• US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends.
• US politics.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Weekly Inflow Streak to Four

The US BTC-spot ETF market emphasized its importance to BTC and the broader crypto market. In the week ending July 26, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its weekly net inflow streak to four weeks.

According to Farside Investors,

• The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $535.3 million in the week ending July 26. (Previous week: $1,245.1 million).
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had total net outflows of $48.9 million. (Previous week: -$56.1 million).
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw total net inflows of $758.5 million. (Previous week: +$706.7 million).
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported total net inflows of $29.6 million. (Previous week: +$243.8 million).

Significantly, US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends countered investor concerns about Mt. Gox’s repayments to creditors and the risk of a surge in BTC sales.

On Saturday, July 27, Mt. Gox had 80,128 BTC, equivalent to $5.43 billion, to transfer to exchanges.

US Presidential Election Race: Bitcoin Reserve Pledge

The 2024 US Presidential Election continued to influence BTC price trends.

Rumors of Donald Trump planning to announce a Bitcoin Reserve Policy if elected, drove BTC demand. Trump will speak at Bitcoin 2024 on Saturday, July 27. If Trump turns the US into a BTC buyer, BTC could reach new highs.

The crypto vote could be crucial in the 2024 race to the White House, with Democratic Party front-runner Kamala Harris aiming to woo crypto voters from the Trump camp.

This week, news emerged of Harris planning to attend Bitcoin 2024.

While bipartisan support for the US crypto space could boost BTC demand, a US Bitcoin Reserve Policy could be a game changer.

SEC vs. Ripple: Settlement Hopes Wane After SEC Closed Meeting

Speculation about a settlement in the SEC vs. Ripple case drove XRP to a July 17 high of $0.6378.

Investors reacted to the SEC announcing a closed meeting, speculating that Ripple could attend to discuss settlement terms.

However, there were no updates from the closed meeting to signal a settlement. XRP dropped below $0.60 as settlement hopes waned.

Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel commented about the speculation of a settlement, stating,

“I’ve tried to patiently explain to people what closed meetings are, how they work, and why a settlement (if it existed) likely wouldn’st even be calendared at one (as presumably the sole person here who used to attend them).”

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan also poured cold water on the chances of a settlement, saying,

“This is unlikely to happen but if it does it is a compromise not a big win. It means both parties give up something.”

A settlement would end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.

XRP could return to $1.00 on news of an SEC settlement. Conversely, an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling could send XRP below the $0.40 level.

From Monday, July 22, to Saturday, July 27, XRP was up 0.17% to $0.5989.

US ETH-Spot ETF Market Launched on July 23

On Tuesday, July 23, ETH-spot ETF issuers launched their ETH-spot ETFs. However, buyer demand for ETH-spot ETFs did not match US BTC-spot ETFs at launch, impacting ETH price trends.

According to Farside Investors, the US ETH-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $341.8 million in the first four days of trading.

• Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw total net outflows of $1,513.5 million.
• iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) reported total net inflows of $442.0 million.
• Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) had total net inflows of $265.9 million.
• Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) saw total net inflows of $219.4 million.

By comparison, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $1,259.5 million in the first four days of trading despite GBTC reporting total net outflows of $1,634.2 million.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends, stating,

“The ‘New Eight’ Ether ETFs not quite as strong as the ‘New Nine’ bitcoin ETFs in offsetting Grayscale outflows but good news is their inflows/volume is still very healthy, and the intensity of the ETHE unlock will die down sooner than it did w GBTC = outlook good but next few days could be tough.”

From Monday, July 22, to Saturday, July 27, ETH was down 7.83% to $3,260. Near-term trends will remain hinged on US ETH-spot ETF demand.