The crypto market looks set for another weekly rise. Several cryptos including DCR lead the way, with network news updates contributing to the bullish week.
Monday to Friday, August 5, the total crypto market cap was up $10.95 billion, with the crypto market on target for a fifth consecutive weekly gain.
Following the dovish 75-basis point rate hike and weak Q2 GDP numbers, US economic indicators painted a mixed picture ahead of the Friday nonfarm payroll numbers.
A pickup in service sector activity saw the markets reconsider another 75-basis point rate hike in September. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased from 55.3 to 56.7. Economists forecast a PMI of 53.5. Significantly, the numbers eased fears of an economic recession.
On Thursday, weekly jobless claims figures sent a pre-NFP warning, however.
In the week ending July 29, initial jobless claims fell by 260k, up from the previous week’s 254k. The figures suggested weakening labor market conditions ahead of the July nonfarm payrolls.
The jobless claims 4-week average climbed from 248.75k to 254.75k. The 4-week average last sat at sub-200k in the week ending May 13.
However, nonfarm payrolls wrapped up an upbeat week, with payrolls surging by 528k in July, beating a 250k forecast. In June, payrolls increased by 398k. Average wage growth held steady at 5.2%.
US corporate earnings also delivered market support and a NASDAQ 100 breakout session. PayPal (PYPL) jumped by 9.25% on a rosy earnings forecast, supporting the NASDAQ 100. Monday through Friday the NASDAQ 100 gained 2.15%, with a 0.50% loss on Friday limiting the upside.
The upbeat numbers increased the bets of a 75-basis point rate hike in September or possibly a full percentage point, leading to a reversal of earlier gains.
There were no cues from the crypto wires to influence the broader crypto market, leaving investors to consider the Fed monetary policy and US economic outlook.
Across the CoinMarketCap crypto top 100, the bullish week saw several cryptos outperform the broader market.
Decred (DCR) leads the way, with Chiliz (CHZ), Flow (FLOW), Holo (HOT), and Optimism (OP) among the front runners with two hours of the Friday session remaining.
For the week, DCR is up 100.5% to $54.82, Monday through Friday. A bearish start to the week saw DCR fall for three consecutive sessions to a Thursday low of $26.15 before making a move. Finding support on Thursday, DCR surged to a Friday high of $70.91 before sliding back to sub-$55.
There were no apparent reasons for the Friday breakout, which saw DCR rise in the market cap rankings to the #64 spot.
Decred employs a hybrid PoS and PoW algo. While holders can validate transactions and vote on proposals by staking, there is also the option to mine DCR.
A possible reason for the latest upswing is the plan to incorporate Lightning Network.
Looking at the trends, DCR would need to avoid a fall back to sub-$30 and the current week low of $26.15 to support the bullish trend. A move through this week’s high of $70.91 would support a run at the April high of $86.56. From there, DCR would have a free run at the January high of $91.13 to bring $100 into view.
A fall to sub-$30 would bring the July and the current-year low of $20.76 into view, the lowest level since November 2020.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal going into Saturday. DCR sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $28.87.
The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish DCR price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after testing support at the 50-day EMA on Friday.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring sub-$30 and the 100-day EMA, currently at $27.03, and the current week low into play.
For the week, CHZ is up 18.58% to $0.1440, Monday through Friday. A bullish start to the week saw CHZ surge from a week low of $12.14 to a Monday high of $0.1631. However, a mid-week pullback saw CHZ return to $0.1308 before a bullish Thursday session.
Network news updates delivered the Monday breakout session. News of Socios.com investing $100 million to support Barcelona FC’s Web3 goals was the key. The Scoville testnet launch for Chiliz Chain 2.0 added further support.
Looking at the trends, CHZ would need to avoid a fall back to sub-$0.1250 and the current week low of $0.1214 to support the bullish trend. A move through this week’s high of $0.1631 would support a run at the May high of $0.1974. From there, CHZ would have a free run at the March high of $0.3312 to bring $0.40 into view.
A fall back to sub-$0.1250 would bring the July and the current-year low of $0.0798 into view, the lowest level since March 2021.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal going into Saturday. CHZ sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.1343.
The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish CHZ price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after last testing support at the 50-day EMA on July 27.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.1260, and the current week’s low into play.
For the week, FLOW is up 43.52% to $2.77, Monday through Friday. A mixed start to the week saw FLOW fall to a Tuesday low of $1.81 before surging to a Thursday high of $3.77.
A pullback from the $3.00 handle saw FLOW fall back to sub-$2.50 before returning to $2.70 levels.
News of Meta announcing the introduction of digital collectibles to showcase NFTs on Instagram delivered support.
According to the announcement,
“In order to post a digital collectible, all you need to do is connect your digital wallet to Instagram. As of today, we support connections with third-party wallets including Rainbow, MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Coinbase Wallet, and Dapper Wallet coming soon. Supported blockchains at this time include Ethereum, Polygon, and Flow.”
Looking at the trends, FLOW would need to avoid a fall back to sub-$2.00 and the current week low of $1.81 to support the bullish trend. A move through this week’s high of $3.77 would support a run at the May high of $5.21. From there, FLOW would have a free run at the April high of $8.17 to bring $10.00, last hit in December 2021.
A fall back to sub-$2.00 would bring the July low of $1.37 into view. FLOW fell to a current year low of $1.16 on June 18.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal going into Saturday. FLOW sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $2.1383.
The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish FLOW price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after the August 4 breakout from the 50-day EMA.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring sub-$2.00 and the 100-day EMA, currently at $1.9757, and the current week low of $1.81 into play.
For the week, HOT is up 17.39% to $0.0027, Monday through Friday. A mixed start to the week saw HOT fall to a Tuesday low of $0.0020 before surging to a Friday high of $0.0029 before easing back.
While there was no specific news to deliver the breakout week, network updates kept HOT in the spotlight.
Looking at the trends, HOT would need to avoid a fall back to sub-$0.0025 and the current week low of $0.0020 to support the bullish trend. A move through this week’s high of $0.0029 would support a run at the May high of $0.0073.
From there, HOT would have a free run at the February high of $0.0086 to bring $0.01 into view, last hit in December 2021. A fall back to sub-$0.0025 would bring the July low of $0.0019 into view.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal going into Saturday. HOT sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.0023.
The 50-day pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish HOT price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after testing support at the 50-day EMA on August 3.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.0023, and the current week low of $0.002 into play.
For the current week, is up 20.14% to $1.9030, Monday to Friday. A bearish start to the week saw OP fall to a Tuesday low of $1.3620 before surging to a Thursday high of $2.2380.
However, a bearish end to Thursday and a bearish Friday session saw OP slide back to sub-$1.80 before finding support.
News from Aave (AAVE) of the launch of the OptimismFND Liquidity Mining Program delivered OP price support. According to the announcement,
“The program will run for 90 days with a distribution of 5M OP to the Aave Protocol’s Optimism Market users.”
Looking at the trends, a breakout from the week high of $2.238 would support a run at $3.00. However, market sentiment across the broader crypto market will need to remain bullish to support a breakout from $2.50. (There is no EMA technical analysis due to the available price points).
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.