A BTC Return to $21,000 and a Bullish ETH Session in the Hands of US Stats

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) hit reverse on Thursday, ending a mini two-day winning streak that saw BTC return to $21,000 for the first time since September 13.
• US economic indicators and corporate earnings weighed on riskier assets, with BTC and ETH tracking the NASDAQ into the red.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to the respective current-week highs.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.35%. Partially reversing a 3.41% rally from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the third time since October 5 while falling short of $21,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $20,892. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182, BTC slid to a late low of $20,191. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237. However, steering clear of sub-$20,000, BTC partially recovered to end the day at $20,301.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 3.32% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 7.26% rally from Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,514.

After a range-bound morning, ETH rose to a mid-day high of $1,580. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,622, ETH slid to a late low of $1,503. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,484, ETH ended the day at $1,514.

On Thursday, US economic indicators and corporate earnings weighed on riskier assets. Better-than-expected US GDP numbers for Q3 initially delivered support before risk aversion hit. The pickup in economic activity could give the Fed more wriggle room to front-load interest rates before the New Year.

US corporate earnings added to the market angst. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta (META) delivered gloomy outlooks to send the NASDAQ into the red. The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.63% on Thursday.

META tumbled by 24.56% in response, with AMZN sliding by 12.73% after hours.

Following the busy Thursday session, US economic indicators will be in the spotlight again. Inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment could influence market sentiment toward a December Fed pivot.

This morning, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 84.8% and 38.0%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 45.6%.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was flat at $20,302. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,166 before rising to a high of $20,343.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $20,461 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,732 and the Thursday high of $20,892. A BTC return to $20,500 would signal a possible breakout session. However, US economic indicators and corporate earnings need to be crypto-friendly to support a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,162 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,863.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,031 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,760. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,059.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,880.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA crossing through the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A 100-day EMA break clear from the 200-day EMA would signal a breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,031) would bring the 50-day EMA ($19,880) and S2 ($19,760) into view.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.03% to $1,515. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,496 before rising to a high of $1,526.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,532 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,562 and the Thursday high of $1,580. An ETH return to $1,550 would signal a bullish session. However, US stats and corporate earnings would need to be ETH-friendly to give the bulls a run at the Thursday high.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,609 would likely cap the upside. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,686.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,485 in play. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,455.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,378.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,422. The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA crossing through the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a move through R1 ($1,562) to target $1,600. However, a risk-off fueled ETH sell-off through S1 ($1,485) and S2 ($1,455) would bring the 50-day EMA ($1,422) into view.