A BTC Return to Sub-$18,900 Could Test ETH Buyers at $1,250

Key Insights:

• A bearish Thursday session saw bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) fall for a third consecutive session.
• US economic indicators supported the Fed’s hawkish policy goals to bring inflation to target, leading to a pullback in the NASDAQ 100 and the crypto market.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, with Fed fear leaving the crypto market on the back foot.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.39%. Following a 1.04% loss on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,058. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the thirteenth consecutive session while falling to sub-$19,000 for the first time in five sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $18,900. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,022 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,911. However, finding early support, BTC rallied to an early afternoon high of $19,355. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,302 before falling back into the red.

Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 0.16% on Thursday. Following a 1.98% slide on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,283.

A bearish start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,270. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) a $1,272. However, finding early support, ETH rallied to an early afternoon high of $1,311. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,306 before falling back into the red.

US economic indicators and investor sentiment towards Fed monetary policy continued to weigh on investor appetite. US labor market numbers remained the focal point, with better-than-expected stats raising bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December.

The crypto market struggled this morning, with the NASDAQ Mini down 78.25 points. Later today, a lack of US economic indicators will leave FOMC member chatter to influence.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.10% to $19,038. A mixed morning saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,142 before falling to a low of $19,008.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,104 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,309 and the Thursday high of $19,355. BTC would need the support of the NASDAQ 100 Mini to return to $19,300. However, for a breakout from recent ranges, FOMC member chatter would have to be less hawkish,

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,559 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,014.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,854 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,649 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,194.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,256.

The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,256) to target R1 ($19,309) and the 100-day EMA ($19,336). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,556. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,256) would leave S1 ($18,854) in play.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down by 0.02% to $1,282. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,279 before rising to a high of $1,293.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,288 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,306 and the Thursday high of $1,311. However, risk appetite will need to improve to support a return to $1,300.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,329 and $1,350 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,370.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,265 in play. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,250 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,247.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,206.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below 50-day EMA, currently at $1,300. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,300) and R1 ($1,306) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($1,312) and R2 ($1,329). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,300) would leave S1 ($1,265) in play.