ADA, HBAR, XLM Price Analysis: Cardano Eyes 65% Gains, Hedera and Stellar Face Risks

The cryptocurrency market extended its recovery this week, buoyed by a favorable US wholesale price report that bolstered optimism about easing inflationary pressures.

Among the standout performers were Cardano (ADA), Stellar (XLM), and Hedera (HBAR), each posting significant gains and activating compelling technical setups that have captured the attention of both traders and long-term investors.

Cardano (ADA) Technical Analysis

ADA/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Analysis — A 25% Boom Likely

Cardano price entered the bullish breakout stage of its prevailing double-bottom pattern, forming within a well-defined ascending channel structure.

The double-bottom pattern—a reliable bullish reversal indicator—emerged after ADA successfully defended the $0.882 level twice. This solidified $0.882 as a key support zone. Since then, ADA/USD has climbed above its 50-EMA (currently near $0.965 on the four-hour chart), strengthening bullish momentum.

The next critical hurdle was near $1.026, a resistance level marking the neckline of the double-bottom structure. On Jan. 15, ADA broke above the neckline, albeit weekly.

A decisive close above this threshold would confirm the pattern, potentially triggering a robust upside move to a level at a length equal to the maximum distance between the pattern’s lowest point and neckline. This measured move target aligns with the $1.20 level, representing a 15% upside from the current price levels.

The upside target further aligns with the upper boundary of ADA’s prevailing ascending channel pattern.

So, the alignment of these technical indicators suggests that ADA could achieve this target, provided it sustains its current momentum and breaks key resistance levels.

However, traders should remain cautious of any signs of rejection near the neckline at $1.026, which could lead to short-term pullbacks.

ADA/USD Weekly Price Chart Analysis — Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Sees 65% Upside

Cardano’s weekly price chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical setup defined by two converging trendlines after a strong price move. As of Jan. 15, ADA/USD was approaching the triangle’s apex, suggesting that a breakout could be imminent.

The measured move target of the symmetrical triangle further supports a bullish outlook. By adding the pattern’s height to the breakout point, ADA could potentially rally toward $1.66—approximately 65% upside from current levels.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe, hovering around 63, supports this scenario. It indicates room for continued upward movement before entering overbought territory.

However, a bearish breakdown cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly if ADA closes below the triangle’s lower trendline, near $0.90. This scenario could expose the token to deeper retracements, with potential support at the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $0.522.

Hedera (HBAR) Technical Analysis

HBAR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Analysis — Fake Breakout May Crash Hedera By 8-20%

HBAR appears vulnerable to a correction. Its recent breakout attempt above the descending trendline has stalled, potentially marking another fake breakout. This would be the second failed breakout attempt since early December, underscoring the trendline’s strength as a resistance level.

At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour timeframe hovers near the overbought threshold, suggesting that bullish momentum could be waning.

Currently trading around $0.30, HBAR has already shown signs of rejection from the 0.5 Fib retracement level near $0.31, aligning with the trendline. If selling pressure builds, HBAR could decline toward the 0.236 Fib line at $0.272, which closely coincides with the support provided by the 50-EMA and 200-EMA on the four-hour chart.

This confluence strengthens the likelihood of buyers re-entering at this level to absorb downward pressure.

However, a deeper selloff cannot be ruled out, especially if bearish sentiment intensifies. In such a scenario, HBAR may retest the key support zone in the chart above — between $0.23 and $0.25 — an area that previously acted as a strong demand region in late December and early January.

HBAR/USD Weekly Price Chart Analysis — Indecision Looms Amid Overbought Selloff Risks

On the weekly chart, Hedera is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a period of indecision that could soon resolve into a sharp, directional move.

A bullish breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline, currently near $0.31, could signal the continuation of HBAR’s upward trend. The measured move for a breakout, calculated by adding the triangle’s height to the breakout level, points to a potential upside target near $0.41.

Such a move would position HBAR for a test of its multi-year highs, further bolstering the bullish momentum from its 2024 recovery.

Conversely, a breakdown below the triangle’s lower trendline, near $0.28, could lead to a bearish reversal. In this scenario, the downside target aligns with the 20-week EMA, which is around $0.19.

With the weekly RSI slightly overbought and trading volumes declining during the consolidation phase, traders should closely monitor the triangle boundaries to confirm the next move.

Stellar (XLM) Technical Analysis

XLM/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Analysis — Double Bottom Breakout Hits a Snag

Stellar is testing the neckline of a double-bottom pattern near $0.48 but has once again encountered resistance within the red zone. This level has rejected multiple breakout attempts since early December.

If XLM closes decisively above the resistance area (defined by the $0.45-0.48 range), it would confirm the double-bottom breakout and set up a potential upside target near $0.53. This target is derived by adding the pattern’s height to the neckline, representing a gain of approximately 15% from the current price levels.

Conversely, if XLM fails to breach the resistance and reverses, it risks invalidating the double-bottom setup. A deeper pullback could push the price toward support at the 50-EMA near $0.43. A break below this level would expose XLM to further downside, erasing its recent gains and possibly signaling a bearish continuation.

XLM/USD Weekly Price Chart Analysis — A 20% Drop Risk Persists

Stellar (XLM) is consolidating within a descending triangle on the weekly chart, signaling bearish pressure despite its recent sharp rally.

The lower trendline of the triangle, near $0.33, has emerged as a potential target in the event of further downside. Notably, this level aligns with the 20-week EMA, which has historically acted as a strong support during retracements.

However, if the price manages to hold at this support, it could attract buyers aiming for a rebound toward the upper trendline, currently near $0.47. A decisive breakout above the triangle’s resistance would invalidate the bearish bias and could trigger renewed bullish momentum.