ADA Price Prediction: Bears Eye $0.345 on Regulatory Risk and Fed Fear

Key Insights:

• ADA followed Thursday’s 8.12% slump with a 1.10% loss on Friday to end the day at $0.358.
• Fed Fear and regulatory risk weighed on ADA despite the latest Input Output HK (IOHK) weekly development numbers.
• The technical indicators remained bearish, supporting a return to sub-$0.350.

ADA fell by 1.10% on Friday. Following an 8.12% tumble on Thursday. ADA ended the day at $0.358. ADA last wrapped up a session at sub-$0.360 on January 24.

A choppy start to the day saw ADA fall to a mid-morning low of $0.355. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.346, ADA rose to an early evening high of $0.366. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.453, ADA revisited the session low of $0.355 before wrapping up the day at $0.358.

Fed Fear and Regulatory Risk Overshadowed IOHK Updates

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report.

According to the February 10 report,

• 116 projects launched on the Cardano network, unchanged from February 3.
• Projects building on the Cardano network totaled 1,202, up by two from the previous report.
• Plutus scripts totaled 5,746, of which 697 were Plutus V2 scripts. As of February 3, Plutus scripts stood at 5,689.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 60.9 million transactions (Previous Report: 60.4m), 7.72 million native tokens (PR: 7.67 million), and 69,498 token policies (PR: 69,268).

While projects building on the Cardano network increased modestly, the continued upward trend was price positive.

IOHK also announced the submission of an update proposal to upgrade the Cardano pre-production environment to protocol V8, which will take effect today.

However, the updates had a muted price impact, with investor angst over the shift in Fed rhetoric and crypto regulatory risk weighing on investor appetite.

News of Kraken settling with the SEC and ceasing crypto staking services for US customers sent the crypto market into the deep red on Thursday and the bears remained in control on Friday.

Today, IOHK updates, EMURGO, and Cardano hard fork news need monitoring. However, SEC chatter and regulatory activity will likely remain the focal point. Reports of the SEC targeting other US exchanges for crypto staking services would test buyer appetite.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.56% to $0.360. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.357 to a high of $0.362.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.359 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.365 and the Friday high of $0.366. A return to $0.360 would support a bullish session. However, Cardano network updates and the broader crypto market would need to provide support.

In the event of a breakout, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.371. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.383.

A fall through the pivot ($0.359) would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.353 into play. Barring another extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.345. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.347 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.335.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

ADA sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.363. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($0.363) and R1 ($0.365) would support a run at R2 ($0.371). However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($0.363) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.353) and sub-$0.350. A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.382) would send a bullish signal.