ADA Price Prediction: Bears Target Sub-$0.290 on SEC Noise

Key Insights:

• On Friday, ADA bucked the broader market, gaining 0.34% to end the day at $0.293.
• Input Output HK metrics and the weekly development report provided price support.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remained bearish, supporting a return to sub-$0.287.

On Friday, cardano (ADA) gained 0.34%. Partially reversing a 2.34% slide from Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.293.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.34% to $0.292. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.294 before falling to a low of $0.290.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ADA remained below the $0.303 – $0.306 resistance band. Importantly, ADA remained below the 50-day ($0.308) and 200-day ($0.348) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

This morning, the 50-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, reflecting bearish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 42.07 reading signaled bearish sentiment. Aligned with the EMAs, the RSI signals an ADA fall through the $0.287 – $0.284 support band. However, a move through the $0.303 – $0.306 resistance band would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.308).

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, ADA sits below the 50-day ($0.302) and 200-day ($0.305) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Notably, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, reflecting bearish near-term momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 34.99 reading signaled bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Aligned with the EMAs, the RSI signals an ADA fall through the $0.287 – $0.284 support band to bring sub-$0.280 into view.

Input Output HK Updates Provided Price Support

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the second-quarter network, financial, and ecosystem metrics.

While the metrics were broadly ADA price negative, an upward trend in total value locked provided a positive spin. Increasing from 138.3 million in Q1, the total value locked stood at $151.7 million in the second quarter.

Average daily transactions were also up quarter-on-quarter while down compared with Q2 2022.

However, average daily addresses declined for the third time in four quarters, with quarterly NFT trading volumes and active staked ADA also seeing downward trends.

The Input Output HK (IOHK) weekly development report provided ADA price support. An increase in projects building on the Cardano network and a rise in transactions sent bullish price signals.

According to the Weekly Development Report,

• The number of projects launched on the Cardano network remained unchanged at 136.
• Projects building on the Cardano network increased by six to 1,271 over one week.
• The total number of native tokens stood at 8.64 million compared with 8.61 million one week earlier.
• Token policies increased from 77,615 to 77,822.
• The total number of transactions increased from 72.3 million to 72.7 million.

The Day Ahead

While it is a quiet day for the crypto markets, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for updates on SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling.

ADA sits in the SEC ‘Security basket’, leaving ADA sensitive to SEC scrutiny of the digital asset space.

However, investors should track ETF chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news, which will continue to move the dial.