ADA Price Prediction: Bulls Eye a Return to $0.390 or Face Sub-$0.375

Key Insights:

• ADA slid by 4.74% to end the Friday session at $0.382.
• The Input Output HK (IOHK) weekly development report failed to distract investors from US government scrutiny, Fed Fear, and recessionary jitters.
• The technical indicators are bearish, bringing sub-$0.360 into view.

ADA slid by 4.74% on Friday. Following a 3.61% loss on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.382. Notably, ADA ended the session at sub-$0.400 for the first time in four sessions.

A range-bound morning saw ADA rise to a mid-morning high of $0.407. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.417, ADA fell to a late low of $0.379. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.391. However, finding support at the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.380, ADA ended the day at $0.382.

Janet Yellen and Recession Fear Overshadow the IOHK Weekly Report

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report on Friday. The report revealed a rise in the number of projects building on Cardano.

According to the April 21 report,

• 124 projects launched on the Cardano network, unchanged from April 14.
• Projects building on the Cardano network totaled 1,227, rising by two from the previous report.
• Plutus scripts totaled 7,783, of which 2,390 were Plutus V2 scripts. As of April 14, Plutus scripts stood at 7,738.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 65.0 million transactions (Previous Report: 64.6m), 8.15 million native tokens (PR: 8.11 million), and 71,786 token policies (PR: 71,589).

The latest project numbers failed to distract investors from US government scrutiny and sentiment toward Fed monetary policy and the economic outlook.

US Government Scrutiny and US Economic Indicators Weigh

On Friday, the US Department of the Treasury released Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen’s remarks from the Financial Stability Oversight Council Meeting. The focus was on nonbanks, which can include crypto-related firms, with greater oversight likely following, including the possibility of supervision by the Federal Reserve.

An SEC content with regulation by enforcement and increased government oversight weighed on investor sentiment.

US economic indicators added to the bearish mood, with better-than-expected US private sector PMIs fueling bets of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory to bring inflation to target.

The all-important US Services PMI rose from 52.6 to 53.7, with the manufacturing PMI up from 49.2 to 50.4.

With cracks beginning to show in the US economy, the Friday stats and hawkish Fed commentary increased the chances of a hard landing.

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor Input Output HK (IOHK) network updates. However, a lack of updates should leave the broader crypto market to influence.

US lawmaker commentary and regulatory activity will remain focal points. However, investors should continue to track Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

In the aftermath of the Securities and Exchange Commission Oversight hearing, SEC Chair Gary Gensler had this to say,

“Investors in the crypto markets must receive the same time-tested protections that the securities laws provide all other markets. Calling yourself a crypto platform is not an excuse to ignore the securities laws. Calling yourself a DeFi platform is not an excuse to defy the securities laws.”

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.52% to $0.384. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.381 to a high of $0.386.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.389 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.400 and the Friday high of $0.407. A return to $0.395 would support a bullish session. However, Cardano network updates and the broader crypto market would need to provide support.

In case of a breakout, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.417. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.445.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.372 in play. However, barring another extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.370 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.361. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.333.

Today, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

ADA sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.396. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($0.396) and R1 ($0.400) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day ($0.411) and 50-day ($0.416) EMAs and R2 (0.417). However, a failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($0.396) would leave S1 ($0.372) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.