ADA Price Prediction: Bulls to Target $0.420 or Face Sub-$0.390

Key Insights:

• ADA rose by 0.74% on Saturday. Consolidating Friday’s 4.13% gain, ADA ended the day at $0.406.
• There were no Input Output HK (IOHK) updates to influence investor sentiment, leaving ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market that rose by 0.24% on Saturday.
• The technical indicators remained bullish, leaving $0.450 in play.

ADA rose by 0.74% on Saturday. Following a 4.13% gain on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.406. Despite the bullish session, ADA fell short of $0.420 for the second consecutive session.

After a mixed start to the day, ADA fell to a late-morning low of $0.398. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.389, ADA rallied to a late afternoon high of $0.419. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $0.413 before falling back to end the session at $0.406.

IOHK Silence Leaves the Broader Crypto Market to Support

There were no Input Output HK (IOHK) network updates to influence investor sentiment on Saturday. The lack of network news left ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Easing regulatory risk jitters, supported by increased US lawmaker scrutiny of SEC regulatory activity, drove investor appetite. However, the upside was modest as investors likely considered uncertainty toward the expected shift in the regulatory landscape following the collapse of FTX.

Fed Fear remains a headwind, which will also continue to test investor appetite. The latest round of US economic indicators supports a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory that is bearish for riskier assets.

For crypto investors, the good news is that the US economy currently looks set to avoid a recession, which should limit the impact of a more hawkish policy outlook over the near term.

However, sentiment could shift should cracks in the US economy begin to reappear.

For Cardano, network updates remain the key, with investors awaiting an influx of projects onto the Cardano network. Recent SEC activity could put a hold on some projects, which would be bearish for ADA. However, the launch of EMURGO’s USDA stablecoin would deliver price support ahead of upcoming Cardano network updates.

Input Output HK Weekly Development Report

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report.

According to the February 17 report,

• 116 projects launched on the Cardano network, unchanged from February 10 and February 3.
• Projects building on the Cardano network totaled 1,204, up by two from the previous report.
• Plutus scripts totaled 5,798, of which 719 were Plutus V2 scripts. As of February 10, Plutus scripts stood at 5,746.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 61.4 million transactions (Previous Report: 60.9m), 7.79 million native tokens (PR: 7.72 million), and 69,778 token policies (PR: 69,498).

Key highlights from the report included,

• Valentine (SECP) upgrade live on mainnet.
• Release of new Mithril distribution.
• Lace Desktop and Marlow Runtime are under ongoing development.

While the increase in the number of projects launched on the Cardano network disappointed, the Valentine upgrade should support a continued upward trend.

The Day Ahead

IOHK updates will continue to influence. However, investors need to monitor the crypto news wires for events that could move the dial. Beyond Binance, FTX, Genesis, Silvergate Bank updates, SEC activity, and US lawmaker chatter need consideration.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.99% to $0.402. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.407 before falling to a low of $0.401.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.408 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.417 and the Saturday high of $0.419. A return to $0.410 would support a bullish session. However, Cardano network updates and the broader crypto market would need to provide support.

In the event of a breakout, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.429. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.450.

Failure to move through the pivot ($0.408) would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.396 in play. Barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.390 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.387. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.366.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bullish signals.

ADA sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.391. Following the Wednesday bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($0.396) and the 50-day EMA ($0.391) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.417) to target R2 ($0.429). However, a fall through S1 ($0.396) and the 50-day ($0.391) would bring S2 ($0.0.387) and the 100-day EMA ($0.385) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.