ADA Price Prediction: IOHK Updates and US Stats Put Sub-$0.42 in Play

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, cardano (ADA) fell by 0.46% to end the session at $0.429.
• Hawkish FOMC member chatter left ADA and the broader crypto market in the red for the day.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA below the 50-day EMA to leave sub-$0.40 in play.

On Thursday, ADA fell by 0.46%. Following a 1.15% loss from Wednesday, ADA ended the day at $0.429.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA strike an early high of $0.437. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.437, ADA slid to a late low of $0.426. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.424, ADA returned to $0.431 to limit the downside.

Network updates continued to lack influence, leaving ADA in the hands of broader market risk sentiment.

Fed Fear Weighed as Investors Reacted to Hawkish Fed Chatter

Network updates continued to take a back seat, with US economic indicators and Fed chatter providing direction.

On Thursday, FOMC member Charles Evans tested investor resilience by reminding the markets that the Fed has 125 basis points left in the tank for 2022. With the markets betting on a 75-basis point rate hike in November, that means a 50-basis point hike in December, assuming inflation softens and labor market conditions deteriorate.

Later today, the markets will get a sense of labor market conditions with US nonfarm payrolls in focus. A sharp increase in hiring and a fall in US unemployment could nudge the 125-basis point target higher.

However, while labor market numbers will influence, investors continue to track Input Output HK updates. Project numbers on the Cardano network remain a focal point.

Overnight, Input Output HK took to Twitter, saying,

“The Cardano universe is expanding with the arrival of a broad range of DEXs, DeFi, & Dapps. As Cardano grows, so does its reach, community, & adoption.”

However, since the Vasil hard fork, the weekly updates have yet to impress, leaving ADA on the defensive.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was flat at $0.429. A range-bound start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.430 before falling to a low of $0.427.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.431 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.435. Crypto-friendly US nonfarm payrolls and Fed chatter would support a bullish session.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.442 and $0.445 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.453.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.424 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.415. The Second Major Support Level at $0.420 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.409.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.433. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.433) and R1 ($0.435) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.441) and R2 ($0.442). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.453. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.433) would likely see ADA fall through S1 ($0.424) to give the bears a run at S2 ($0.420).