ADA Price Prediction: Slow Exchange Upgrades to Test $0.40

Key Insights:

• A bearish end to the month saw Cardano (ADA) fall by 1.55% to end August with a 13.73% loss.
• While broader crypto market forces weighed, progress towards the Vasil hard fork delivered late August support.
• However, following the August loss, technical indicators remain bearish. ADA sits below the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.40 in play.

On Wednesday, ADA fell by 1.55%. Reversing a 0.67% decline from Tuesday, ADA ended August down by 13.73% to $0.446.

A bullish morning saw ADA strike a mid-morning high of $0.463. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.464, ADA slid to a late low of $0.444. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.446 before ending the day at $0.446.

The choppy session came despite the broader crypto market finding support at the month’s end. Disappointing US economic indicators provided support while hawkish FOMC member chatter tested investor resilience.

While external market forces will continue to influence, progress towards the Vasil hard fork will remain the key driver.

Cardano Updates Continue to Support a September Hard Fork Date

Progress towards the Vasil hard fork was ADA positive ahead of the Thursday session.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 77% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. Momentum slowed in recent days, with the 75% threshold already achieved. However, Input Output HK called for SPO nodes to continue to upgrade.

With the 75% target achieved, the spotlight is on crypto exchanges and DApps, two critical mass indicators.

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ada liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

At the time of writing, the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were as of August 31.

Binance, KuCoin, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, and HitBTC lead a growing list of exchanges that are in the progress of upgrading. Currently, Bittrue, BitMart, LCX,  and MEXC are hard fork ready.

In summary, four exchanges are hard fork ready, 26 are in progress, while 109 have yet to start. While Binance and Kraken are in progress, Coinbase has yet to begin the process. Other exchanges that make up the top 12 by liquidity that have yet to start the process include ZB.com, ChangellyPRO, and AAX.

A slow uptake by Coinbase and the remaining top 12 could test ADA price support.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.67% to $0.449. A choppy start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.450 before sliding to a low of $0.442.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.450 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.459. ADA would need support from the broader market to break out from the morning high of $0.450.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.471. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.492. Updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators will continue to deliver ADA price action. However, economic data from the US and FOMC member chatter will also need consideration.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.438 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.43 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4429.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.408. Positive US stats and hawkish Fed chatter would test investor resilience for a second session.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.455. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, a breakout from the 50-day EMA (0.455) and R1 ($0.459) would bring the 100-day EMA ($0.470) and R2 ($0.471) into view.