ADA Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Continues to Support a $0.60 Target

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Monday session, with Cardano (ADA) succumbing to external market forces.
• Bearish sentiment from the global equity markets weighed on the broader crypto market, with profit taking likely contributing to the downside.
• Technical indicators remain bullish as investors look ahead to the Vasil hard fork, with ADA sitting above the 200-day EMA to bring $0.60 into play.

On Monday, ADA fell by 1.19%. Partially reversing a 4.78% rally from Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.498.

A mixed morning saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.507. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.517, ADA fell to a late morning low of $0.483. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.483, ADA revisited $0.503 before falling back to sub-$0.500.

Profit taking likely contributed to the Monday loss, with investors also eying the influence of the Merge on Ethereum (ETH) price action.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Remains ADA Positive Despite Monday Loss

While ADA struggled at the start of the week, the upcoming Vasil hard fork remains ADA positive.

Input Output Hong Kong did not release any reports to question the September 22 hard fork date. However, investors are likely monitoring the progress of exchanges to upgrade ahead of the hard fork date.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 5, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Nine exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 5 as of September 2: AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitrue, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit have upgraded. Bitrue, MEXC, and Whitebit form the top 12 exchanges by liquidity.
• 25 exchanges are in progress.
• Significantly, Binance is ‘nearly there,’ with Coinbase and Kraken upgrades in progress.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 82% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. While upgrade momentum slowed, nodes achieved the 75% threshold earlier in the week.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.20% to $0.499. A choppy start to the day saw ADA strike an early high of $0.510 to test the First Major Resistance Level at $0.509 before sliding to a low of $0.487.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.496 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.509 and the morning high of $0.510. With the Vasil hard fork date in place, exchange upgrades should continue to provide ADA price support.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.520. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.544.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.485 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.48 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.472.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.448.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.482. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

The bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($0.509) to bring R2 ($0.521) into view. However, a fall through S1 ($0.483) and the 200-day EMA ($0.482) would give the bears a look at the 50-day EMA ($0.475) and the 100-day EMA ($0.474).