ADA Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Countdown Brings $0.50 into View

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 2.43%. Reversing a 1.12% gain from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.442.
• Investor sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork failed to deliver support, with market angst over the Fed and the economic outlook weighing.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.40.

On Tuesday, ADA fell by 2.43%. Reversing a 1.12% gain from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.442.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.455 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.462, ADA fell to a low of $0.438. However, finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.438, ADA ended the day at $0.442.

While sentiment towards tomorrow’s Vasil hard fork was ADA positive, market angst over today’s Federal Reserve monetary policy decision has tested investor appetite. A hawkish 75-basis point rate hike and downward revisions to growth forecasts would test buyer appetite further.

Following the market reaction to the Ethereum (ETH) Merge, we expect investor caution in the run-up to the hard fork. However, unlike the Merge, the fork should be ADA positive.

The Countdown to the Vasil Hard Fork Begins

On Tuesday, updates on exchanges and DApps upgrading ahead of tomorrow’s hard fork were ADA positive. The latest updates suggest no further delays.

As of September 20, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Thirty-one exchanges are hard fork ready, rising by two from September 19.
• Fifteen are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Eight exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, WhiteBit, and XT.com, with three in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, and HitBTC.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process before tomorrow’s hard fork.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges must upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity). Currently, IOHK reports exchanges upgrades accounting for 55% of ADA liquidity.
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 20, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available today at 1600 UTC.

For those looking for a detailed explanation of the Vasil hard fork, Input Output HK shared a Vasil Upgrade guide.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 3.17% to $0.456. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rally from an early low of $0.442 to a high of $0.458.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.452.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to hold above R1 and the $0.445 pivot to target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.462. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates will continue to influence as the Vasil hard fork countdown begins.

Following Tuesday’s update, investors will look for exchanges, including Kraken and Coinbase, to complete the upgrade process. While the updates will influence, we expect the Fed’s monetary policy decision to provide direction.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test resistance at $0.470. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.479.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.435 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.430 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.428. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.411.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.466. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 100-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R2 ($0.462) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.466) and the 100-day EMA ($0.473). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.479. However, failure to continue a move towards the 50-day EMA could put ADA under pressure.