Altcoins Weekly Analysis: Will BNB, Cardano, and XRP Boom Around Fed Minutes?

Altcoins have opened the week starting Oct. 7 in the green zone, led by an uplifting mood across the risk market. Top events driving the market higher include the stronger-than-expected United States payroll data and China’s multiple stimulus measures to support its ailing economy.

As of the time of publishing, most top-ranking altcoins are trading above their technical support levels. And they may consolidate near the same zones ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes on Oct. 9, when it opted for a large 50 basis-point interest rate cut.

Altcoin Market’s Top Fundamentals This Week

The U.S. central bank will likely cut interest rates again in November and December by the usual 25 basis points. Money markets are pricing in around 67 basis points of total cuts for the two meetings, according to LSEG Refinitiv data. CME data shows a 97.8% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in November.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled more rate cuts ahead but suggested they won’t be as aggressive as September’s 50 basis-point reduction. Analysts at HSBC noted the Fed’s September minutes could reveal a preference among some policymakers for a slower, more gradual approach.

Following the minutes, Oct. 10’s U.S. inflation data will be a key factor in shaping expectations in the altcoin market, though only a notably weak figure might fuel hopes for another large cut.

Altcoins Technical Analysis: BNB, Cardano, and XRP Setups

The altcoin market will most likely consolidate ahead of the Fed minutes as traders look for further rate-cut guidance before placing aggressive bets. Nonetheless, some altcoins, including BNB (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and XRP (XRP), have painted interesting technical setups on their daily timeframe charts.

BNB Technical Analysis: $600 by Weekend Likely?

BNB is forming what appears to be a cup-and-handle pattern, confirmed by a U-shaped recovery that resembles the “cup,” followed by a slight consolidation to the downside that looks like a “handle.”

A cup-and-handle pattern typically resolves when the price breaks decisively above its common resistance level, called the “neckline.” As a rule of technical analysis, the price rises by as much as the maximum distance between the cup’s lowest point and the neckline following the breakout.

This week, BNB is eyeing a run-up toward the neckline resistance of around $600, possibly if the Fed minutes indicate further rate cuts in 2024 and the inflation data come out weaker than expected.

Meanwhile, a clear breakout above the $600 level, coupled with a rise in trading volumes, could indicate a rally toward $840 by the year’s end. That is up approximately 47% from the current price.

Cardano (ADA) Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge Spurs Downside Risks

Cardano is looking at the possibility of posting short-term gains as it bounces inside its prevailing ascending channel pattern. Unfortunately, this pattern resembles a rising wedge, which many technical analysts consider a bearish reversal pattern.

This week, ADA’s price could climb toward the wedge’s upper trendline at around $0.40, coinciding with the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave).

Nonetheless, a rising wedge typically resolves in a breakdown, especially when the price breaks below its lower trendline. As a rule, the price falls by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and the lower trendline.

That brings ADA’s rising wedge target for 2024 somewhere between $0.25 and $0.30, depending on the breakdown point. This represents a 17-29% decline in ADA’s current prices.

XRP Technical Analysis: A 20% Jump Next?

XRP price is recovering from the aftermath of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) appeal in the Ripple lawsuit. The cryptocurrency may continue heading upward for the remainder of this week and month, given its resemblance to recovery trends in August and September.

Notably, XRP is trading inside an ascending channel pattern and is currently bouncing from its lower trendline support. Previous retests of the same trendline have led the price higher toward the upper trendline, a scenario that will likely repeat if the Fed stays on its dovish path.

This week, XRP’s upside target is around its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at around $0.56. A clear breakout above the wave resistance could have bulls target the channel’s upper trendline at around $0.65, coinciding with the 0.785 Fibonacci retracement line.

That is over 20% from the current price levels.