ASX 200 Forecast: Gold Miners Drag Index as 500-SMA Caps Recovery

Key Points

• ASX 200 stays bearish in the medium term, with the 20-brick Renko still below the 500-SMA.
• Australian 10-year yields are falling, which should help valuations in the medium term.
• Gold miners were hit hard, with EVN, NEM and NST being down during the trading session.

The ASX 200 Index is attempting to recover. But it’s very fragile at the moment with gold miners and banks weighing on sentiment. Falling Australian yields should help valuations, though we’d need a break above 8,800 before changing my medium term view on this instrument. I’d treat this rebound very cautiously.

Heat Map Shows Miners and Banks Under Pressure

There was red throughout. Newmont was down 7.22%, Evolution Mining was down 7.76% and North Star was also down over 7%. Gold miners got hit hard. This is tied to the weakness in gold prices and traders also repriced the inflation rate risk from renewed US-Iran tension.

On the bright size, James Hardie is up 3.3% and could be attributed to its recent FY26 update showing adjusted EBITDA ahead of guidance and FY27 free cash flow expected above US$ 500 million.

The ASX 200 Index is down over 1.4% on the trading day with 51% of stocks above their 20-day SMA. Being above 50 is still a good sign. Is the ASX 200 Index making a higher low?

Gold Miners And Banks Drag The ASX 200 Lower

Australian 10-Year Yield Breaks Lower

Yields have pressed lower. The Australian 10 year yield is back at 4.85% and is underneath a flipped Supertrend and 50-SMA with the RSI at 37 and the Z-Score SMA is at the lows. However, the Z-Score SMA is trending higher which indicates some bullish divergence. If the Australia 10 year yield breaks below 4.85%, the next level to watch is the 500-SMA on the Renko.

Australian Yields Slide Below Short-Term Trend Support

ASX 200 Renko Still Looks Capped

Has the ASX 200 Index made a higher low? Possibly, around the 8,560 level. The bricks did hit a wall at the 500-SMA some hours ago, the Index is making a second attempt to retest it. Momentum is looking positive, with the RSI above 50 and the Z-Score SMA turning higher from oversold levels.

ASX 200 Bounce Stalls Below The 500-SMA

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,800, 9,230

Medium Term Path: My eyes are still on 8,800 for me to consider a change in bias and trend direction. The Index is making baby steps to do so but any misstep could take the ASX 200 lower. Medium term support for the Index is observed around 8,255.