AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: May US Jobs Report in Focus

It is a quiet Friday session for the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. New Zealand terms of trade for Q1 and housing sector data from Australia are out this morning. However, barring an unexpected slump in Australian home loans, the numbers should have a limited impact on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairings.

The lack of influential stats will leave the pairings in the hands of market risk sentiment ahead of the US Jobs Report out later today. Investors should consider chatter from Capitol Hill on the debt ceiling deal and Fed commentary following the slide in bets on a June Fed interest rate hike.

Looking ahead to the US session, the US Job Report will be in the spotlight. While the markets are betting on the Fed to hit pause in June, a more marked pickup in wage growth and a solid increase in nonfarm payrolls could test the theory.

However, FOMC members and US debt ceiling-related news will also need consideration.

AUD/USD Price Action

This morning, the AUD/USD was up 0.09% to $0.65747. A range-bound start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.65652 before rising to a high of $0.65752.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6545 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6605. A move through the Thursday high of $0.65816 would signal a bullish session. However, economic indicators and the debt ceiling news must support a breakout.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6642. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6739.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6508 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub-$0.65 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6448.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6351.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.65888. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

An AUD/USD move through the 100-day EMA ($0.65888) and R1 ($0.6605) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6642) and the 200-day EMA ($0.66309. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.65494) would bring S1 ($0.6508) into view. An AUD/USD fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the NZD/USD was up 0.02% to $0.60708. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.60587 before rising to a high of $0.60720.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The NZD/USD has to avoid the $0.6046 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6101. A move through the Thursday high of $0.60769 would signal a bullish session. However, the US Jobs Report and US debt ceiling news must support a session breakout.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test resistance at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6132. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6219.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6014 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD should steer clear of sub-$0.60 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.5959.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.5872.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs were bearish. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.60858. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An NZD/USD move through the 50-day EMA ($0.60858) and R1 ($0.6101) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6132) and the 100-day EMA ($0.61388). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.60858) would leave S1 ($0.6014) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.