AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: US Stats in Focus

It is a quiet morning for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. There are no economic indicators from Australia or New Zealand for investors to consider with the markets closed for ANZAC Day.

The lack of stats will leave investors to consider the week ahead, with key stats from Australia, New Zealand, and the US likely to set the stage for the respective central banks over the near term.

Overnight, weak US economic indicators revealed more cracks in the US economy, with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index falling from -15.7 to -23.4 in April. The Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -0.19 in March versus a forecasted rise to -0.02.

Despite the disappointing stats, the probability of a 25-basis point May interest rate hike rose from 89.1% to 98.9% on Monday. Significantly, the chances of a June hike climbed from 23.4% to 24.7%, according to the CME FedWatchTool.

The latest stats and the policy outlook further raise the prospects of a hard landing should the Fed deliver multiple rate hikes in May and June.

Later today, US consumer confidence figures for April will draw interest. However, economists forecast the CB Consumer Confidence Index to slip from 104.2 to 104. A fall below 100 would move the dial. However, there is no Fed talk for investors to consider. The Fed entered the blackout period on Saturday.

AUD/USD Price Action

The Aussie was up 0.05% to $0.66991. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of 0.66907 before rising to a high of $0.67002.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6686 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6707. A move through the morning high of $0.67002 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie Dollar would risk-on sentiment to support a pre-US session breakout.

In the case of another breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6719 and resistance at $0.6750. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6751.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6675 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub-$0.6650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6654 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6621.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.67046. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 100-day ($0.67046) and 50-day ($0.67066) EMAs would support a breakout from R1 ($0.6707) to give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($0.67153) and R2 ($0.6719). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.67066) would leave S1 ($0.6675) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was up 0.09% to $0.61720. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.61625 before rising to a high of $0.61740.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The NZD/USD has to avoid the $0.6153 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6181. A move through the morning high of $0.6174 would signal a bullish session. However, market risk sentiment must support a pre-US session breakout.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6196 and resistance at $0.62. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6240.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6138 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.61. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6110 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6067.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.61861. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.6181) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.61861) and R2 ($0.6196). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61861) would leave S1 ($0.6138) in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.