AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 0.7535

AUD/USD Video 01.04.21.

Australian Dollar Is Under Pressure Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD managed to get below the support at 0.7575 and tested the next support level at 0.7535 while the U.S. dollar remained mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is testing the nearest support level at 93.20. In case this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will get back to the support at 93 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Today, Australia reported that Manufacturing PMI declined from 56.9 in February to 56.8 in March compared to analyst forecast of 57. The final reading of Retail Sales report for February indicated that Retail Sales declined by 0.8% month-over-month compared to analyst consensus of 1.1%.

Later, foreign exchange market traders’ attention will shift to U.S. job market data. Initial Jobless Claims report is projected to show that 680,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week. Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline from 3.87 million to 3.78 million.

The market will also evaluate the new $2 trillion infrastructure plan which was revealed by U.S. President Joe Biden. At this point, market reaction is muted, but the situation may change quickly if the new plan impacts the dynamics of Treasury yields.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD declined below the support at 0.7575 and made an attempt to settle below the next support level at 0.7535 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum.

In case AUD/USD manages to settle below the support at 0.7535, it will head towards the next support level at 0.7490. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. A move below the support at 0.7490 will open the way to the test of the next support at 0.7460.

On the upside, AUD/USD needs to settle back above 0.7575 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 0.7600.

If AUD/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 0.7635. A move above the resistance at 0.7635 will push AUD/USD towards the next resistance at the 20 EMA at 0.7665.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.