AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to See Buyers

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has threatened a major downtrend line in a massive symmetrical triangle on Friday as the jobs number has come and gone. The jobs number was a little bit hotter than anticipated, but it’s worth noting that several of the previous months have been revised downward. In fact, in the last couple of years, it’s been something like 75% of these jobs numbers are revised downward. So, there’s a lot of questions to be asked.

Ultimately, at this point in time, short-term pull banks could offer a bit of support near the 0.67 level. But on the other hand, if we can break above the 0.6750 level on a daily close, then I think it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.6850 level. In general, this is a market that I think, even if we do break down from here, there is plenty of support to be found right around 0.6650, and then again at the 200-day EMA. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is going to be moving based on commodities, and of course, the whole idea of Asian growth, or lack of Asian growth.

So, I like the idea that perhaps we’re getting ready to break out and go higher, but interest rates are probably going to stay higher longer than most people believe in the United States. So that will continue to cause a certain amount of volatility. At this point though, it certainly looks like the Australian dollar is trying to break out. And if you zoom out on a chart, you can make an argument for a big, massive, perhaps even inverted head and shoulders going back about two years. We’ll have to wait and see if that actually plays out. That’s a difficult trade to take anyways, but with this, it looks like the buyers are starting to take over.

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