AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to See Range

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we continue to see a lot of noise in not only this market, but the overall currency markets in general. After all, this is a scenario where you are looking at this through the prism of risk on or risk off. We have the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday that of course will have a major influence on where the dollar goes next. But it’s not just the interest rate decision, it’s the press conference. And I think that’s really where the rubber meets the road, as it were. Keep in mind, the Australian dollar, of course, is highly leveraged to commodity.

So, you will have to pay attention to those. But I think you’ve got a situation where market participants continue to take a look at the 0.6850 level as a major barrier and an area that we’re not likely to get above very easily, at least not without Jerome Powell explicitly promising more interest rate cuts. Pullbacks at this point are more likely than not supported by the 200-day EMA, which of course is just below the crucial 0.6650 level. This is a level that has been important multiple times, so I would anticipate that the markets will pay close attention to the idea of “market memory.”

Either way, I suspect that you are going to have to think about the volatility in this pair, as it continues to be very choppy. This market will continue to be erratic on a day to day basis, but the FOMC press conference will be a major event.

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