AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar All Over the Place

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 14.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been all over the place during the trading session on Wednesday, as we have been hanging around the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level is an area that has been supported more than once, and therefore a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. The shape of the candlestick as I write this article is very neutral, suggesting just how uncertain most traders are. After all, there are a lot of things moving the currency markets right now, not the least of which of course is the inflation effect on central bank policy.

The Aussie dollar has been beaten down rather significantly, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out because the markets in New York are trying to price in the idea of no more interest rate hikes, although the CPI numbers came out on Wednesday had 0.3% for Core CPI, as opposed to the 0.2% expected. In other words, you can make an argument that the Federal Reserve will remain tight for quite some time. Nonetheless, this is a market that also has to worry about global growth, so that’s another thing that people will be paying close attention to. If we were to break down below the recent low from last week, then this pair could really break down. In that scenario, I see the Australian dollar trading at 0.2650 over the next several weeks.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break above the high from the Monday candlestick, that opens up the possibility of moving to the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where the 50-Day EMA is approaching. This is an area that I think will attract a lot of selling pressure, not only due to that technical indicator and the large, round, psychologically significant figure, but the fact that we have already seen that play out. As things stand right now, I am willing to fade rallies at the first signs of exhaustion but also recognize that volatility will remain.

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