AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues Consolidation

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 24.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during early trading on Thursday, but struggled with the idea of moving above the 200-Day EMA. Furthermore, it was Thanksgiving in the United States so a lack of liquidity could have been a major issue. The fact that we are struggling to continue going higher tells me that we really are ready to break out of this consolidation range, presently between 0.65 level and the 0.66 level.

I would anticipate more of the same on Friday, mainly due to the fact that most Americans don’t come back to work on the day after Thanksgiving, so there will be a serious lack of liquidity. Ultimately, the Aussie will have to make a bigger decision and at this point I think we are just simply trying to work off some excess froth. After all, we shot straight up in the air twice in a row over the last couple of weeks. The market is so hell-bent on the idea of the Federal Reserve pausing its monetary policy that they are trying to bake in the idea that the Federal Reserve might actually start cutting rates next year. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but clearly there are a lot of things afoot at this point.

Remember that the Australian dollar is driven by a lot of external factors, mainly global growth and commodity demand. Furthermore, you also have to pay attention to what’s going on in China, and China has not been particularly bullish as of late. Because of this, I think the Australian dollar still has a little bit of a dark cloud over hanging its head, and of course the 200-Day EMA in and of itself could cause some major issues as well.

In the short term, I would anticipate trading back and forth between 0.65 level on the bottom in the 0.66 level on the top. Once we break out of this range clearly, there will be a bigger move, but right now I think we are just simply trying to sort things out, and it will be rather noisy in this process. Risk appetite will come into play a part as well, as per usual.

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