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AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Threaten a Ceiling

By:
Christopher Lewis
Published: May 6, 2024, 12:40 GMT+00:00

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit in the early hours on Monday, and as a result, we are testing the overall ceiling in the long-term consolidation area.

In this article:

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

You can see that it looks like we are trying to probe the resistance barrier near the 0.6650 level early during the Monday session. That being said, the market is also going to be paying close attention to this area due to the fact that not only do we have a well-defined ceiling, but it also could lead to further US dollar weakness.

Now Australia might be a little bit of an outlier because it’s worth noting that the Aussie dollar has performed remarkably well against the greenback, while other currencies may not have. Underneath we have the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA both potentially offering support. And then of course we have the 0.6450 level, an area that has been important multiple times.

What I think is that the Australian dollar vs US dollar chart just simply shows how volatile the world is right now as far as finance is concerned. I don’t know that we really take off, but if we do, then I think you’ve got a situation where this market breaking above that ceiling could open up a move to 0.6850. Ultimately, the market participants out there will be paying close attention to this area. And I think Monday and Tuesday could be rather important.

That being said, the Australian landscape will be greatly influenced early Tuesday because of the interest rate decision coming out of Australia. So, this could be a little bit of a false positive more likely than not by the end of the day, Tuesday, we should have clarity as to whether we stay range-bound or if we do try to break out to the upside for something more sustainable.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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