AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives up Early Gains But Remains Range Bound

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 09-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, but then gave back gains to show signs of hesitation. At this point, it seems like a situation where we just don’t really know what to do with the 0.67 level, as it is in an area that of course is more or less like a magnet for price, and I think that may continue to be the case.

Quite frankly, we’ve got a situation where we just don’t have a lot of clarity. I do have a couple of levels that I’ll be paying attention to, though, and could come into the picture to influence whether or not I am buying or selling. Because of this, you need to be cautious with your position sizing and recognize that you don’t want to jump into the market with both feet right away. Because of this, be cautious with your position sizing and only add to the position as things start to work out in your favor.

The 0.6765 level above is a short-term resistance barrier and breaking above that opens up the possibility of going to the 0.69 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, then I think you may see the Australian dollar drift back down to the 0.65 level. In general, this is a market that is highly influenced by risk appetite, but it’s also risk averse in the sense that when interest rates spike, it will drive demand for the US dollar as well.

So, you have to keep one eye on the 10-year yield and another eye on Asia and global growth overall. Geopolitical concerns of course continue to be a major issue, and that can have an influence on the US dollar, making it more attractive. We are essentially at fair value between two major points on the chart, so I remain somewhat neutral, but I do have those levels that I’ll be paying attention to in order to make my next decision.

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