AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Threatening to Breakout Over 50% Level at .7207

The Australian Dollar is inching higher early Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes showed policymakers agreed that the next move in its benchmark rate is more likely to be an increase than a decrease. However, the board also believes there is no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Additionally, investors are also looking to a major speech by President Xi Jinping on Tuesday to mark the 40^th anniversary of China’s market reforms.

At 0234 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7194, up 0.0016 or +0.22%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7151 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up if buyers can take out the last swing top at .7247.

The main range is .7020 to .7394. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7207 to .7163. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the recent price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7163.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7163 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. This could fuel a rally into the 50% level at .7207.

Since the trend is down, we could see some resistance at .7207. However, overtaking this level could trigger an acceleration into the main top at .7247.

Taking out .7247 will change the main trend to up. This could extend the rally into the retracement zone at .7273 to .7301.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold .7363 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of .7151. The daily chart is wide open under .7151 with the next major downside target coming in at .7020.