AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weakens Under .7249, Strengthens Over .7293

The Australian Dollar hit its lowest level since August 27 against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after better-than-expected retail sales numbers in the United States boosted bets on the strength of the U.S. economy and earlier monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The Aussie was also pressured by a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

On Friday, the AUD/USD settled at .7265, down 0.0029 or -0.40%.

The Federal Reserve meets for two days next week and on Wednesday is expected to give further details as to when it may start to slow its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases that have supported the recovery from the pandemic.

Fed Chief Jerome Powell has said the so-called tapering could occur this year, but investors are waiting for more specifics.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up but momentum is trending lower. A trade through .7222 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7478 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through .7347 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is .7107 to .7478. The AUD/USD closed inside its retracement zone at .7293 to .7249 on Friday.

The major resistance is the retracement zone at .7499 to .7592.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7293.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7292 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the Fibonacci level at .7249, followed by the main bottom at .7222.

Taking out .7222 will change the main trend to down and could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7293 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at .7347. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside with the next minor top at .7410 the next likely target.