AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Drop

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Monday, to break down below the 0.63 level. The Australian dollar is a commodity currency that a lot of people pay close attention to, and therefore I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this market continue to struggle in an environment that is slowing down economically. The Australian dollar also has been shocked a bit by the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates “only 25 basis points” last meeting, instead of the expected 50.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten its monetary policy and therefore the US dollar itself should be strong. I think that at this point you are waiting for rallies to start shorting, as the market has shown itself to be very volatile and negative, and I think it will continue to be that way going forward. With this, I think we got a scenario where the Aussie gets pounded every time it tries to recover, with a bit of a ceiling near the 0.6538 level. If we do get above there, then we have the 50-EMA sitting right at the 0.67 level and crashing lower.

On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the lows of the trading session on Monday, then it’s likely that we could go much lower. I believe that it is probably only a matter of time before the rallies offer nice opportunities to pick up “cheap US dollars.” The Australian dollar has a long way to go before things turn around, and needs a lot of external help from the global economy to make that happen.

AUD/USD Price Forecast Video for 11.10.22

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