The Australian dollar initially rallied on Thursday but gave back gains as the 0.70 level continues to offer a bit of the barrier.
The Australian dollar rallied at the beginning of the Thursday session but has given back the gains and then some as we continue to see a lot of noise in the 0.70 vicinity. The risk appetite around the world continues to deteriorate, so it makes sense that the Aussie will suffer at the hands of it. In this scenario, I believe it is more likely than not only a matter of time before we see further deterioration in the Aussie, perhaps testing that low again. Quite frankly, I thought we were going to get a little bit more of a relief rally than we did, but either way, I figured it was only a matter of time.
If we break down below the 0.6850 level, that opens up the door to fresh selling, and therefore even more pain for the bulls. It would take breaking above the 0.7250 level to get serious about a potential turnaround in this market, something that I just don’t see happening. Ultimately, I think we go much lower unless something changes quite radically out there.
Another thing to think about is the China part of the equation, as the Chinese economy is being locked down randomly yet again. This has a major influence on exports coming out of Australia, with the Chinese Communist Party more than willing to destroy global shipping supply chains, this is going to be something very similar to a “rolling blackout” like you get in electric grids at times. The Australian dollar is not a currency I trust at the moment, which unfortunately has nothing to do with Australia itself.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.