AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Chop Back and Forth

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Monday and then reached the 50-week EMA before spending the rest of the week recovering at this point in time, it looks like a market that is trying to sort out where we are going to go longer term, perhaps reaching towards the 200 week EMA, which is at the 0.6850 level. It’s worth noting that the 0.6850 level above is not only where the 200 week EMA resides, but it’s also an area that we have seen a lot of resistance at previously.

Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market might try to get up there, but it’s really not until we break above that level on a weekly close and I think the entire trend changes. Remember, the Australian dollar is considered to be a safety currency. So, it does tend to be very noisy. With that, pay attention to commodities as most people know, and then of course, the Asian economies themselves as they are a major supplier of hard materials to places like China, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.

So, with all that being said, it’s risk on risk off as it were. If we were to break down below the 50 week EMA, then I think it opens up a move back down to the 0.6450 level. But right now, I think we’re probably trying to work off some of the recent rally to turn around and perhaps try to test resistance. If we can finally break out, this could lead to a fairly big move.

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