AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Plunges

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 29.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar fell rather hard during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching down toward the 0.66 level underneath, which is an area that was the bottom of the overall consolidation area that the market had been in for quite some time. The 0.66 level is broken down below and could open up a move back down to the lows near the 0.65 level, an area where we had previously seen a bit of support.

We had gone back and forth between 0.68 and 0.66 for quite some time, broke below it to reach that 0.65 region, and then turned around to race toward the 0.69 level before falling again. In other words, this is a market that has been completely out of control. Because of this, I have avoided this market, simply because there are easier markets to trade in now. All things being equal, this is a situation where we are more likely than not to continue going lower, but I am cautious in this type of volatility. After all, if you are going to buy the US dollar, you can do it against many other currencies, such as the Japanese yen.

The 50-Day EMA sits above the last couple of daily candlesticks and could offer a little bit of resistance. If we were to break above that, then the market would try to get to the 200-Day EMA, which currently sits at the 0.6760 region. That being said, it would take a significant turnaround to make that happen, and it looks like the pairs are likely to continue being erratic at this point. With that in mind, I just don’t see a situation where it’s worth the risk trading this market. However, if I were forced to trade this market I would prefer to short the Aussie against the US dollar, as the US dollar will most certainly be attractive due to the high interest rates in that country, and the added benefit of it being a bit of a safety currency. With that being said, if you are involved in this market you have to be short at this point, but quite frankly I can state to the sidelines.

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