AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 16, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 22:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD took a big tumbled to trade well under the 90 price level after giving up 52 points to trade at 0.8913. The US

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 16, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD took a big tumbled to trade well under the 90 price level after giving up 52 points to trade at 0.8913. The US Commerce Department figures show that retail sales in December were up 0.2 per cent from November, while the November reading was downwardly revised to 0.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent. The data, along with hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher about the tapering of quantitative easing (QE), drove the Australian dollar lower, ANZ head of global markets Richard Yetsenga said.

Mr Plosser said he favored ending QE by late 2014, while Mr Fisher again said he favored a $US20 billion-a-month initial tapering of the Fed’s monthly $US85 billion bond-buying program. The Fed in December it would reduce its monthly bond purchases by $US10 billion a month, starting in January. Chinese financial data this morning worried trades with new loans and money stock missing expectations along with a significant drop in Aussie automobile sales, which makes up close to 20% of monthly retail sales.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data January 15, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jan. 15

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.0%

2.9%

JPY

M2 Money Stock (YoY)

4.2%

4.5%

4.4%

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)

1.7%

2.1%

CNY

Chinese M2 Money Stock (YoY)

13.6%

13.8%

14.2%

CNY

Chinese FX Reserves (USD)

3.8B

3.8B

3.7B

CNY

Chinese New Loans

482B

600B

625B

JPY

30-Year JGB Auction

1.665%

1.704%

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY)

15.4%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jan. 16	00:30	AUD	Employment Change	7.5K	21.0K
	00:30	AUD	Full Employment Change		15.5K
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.2%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		35.4B
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	9.0	7.0