AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 8-12, 2013 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 15:00 GMT+00:00

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0391 after hitting a weekly high of 1.0497 after the RBA held rates and policy.

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 8-12, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0391 after hitting a weekly high of 1.0497 after the RBA held rates and policy. Aussie volatility was relatively subdued last week compared to the other major currencies but a pickup in activity seems likely. April’s RBA rate decision reconfirmed a wait-and-see attitude from policymakers, making for a data-dependent environment as traders attempt to handicap the probability of another reduction in borrowing costs Key data points from Australia and China will further stoke debate and offer an impetus for volatility in the week ahead.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Apr 05, 2013	1.0391	1.0424	1.0438	1.0355	-0.32%
Apr 04, 2013	1.0424	1.0454	1.0490	1.0386	-0.29%
Apr 03, 2013	1.0454	1.0457	1.0497	1.0447	-0.02%
Apr 02, 2013	1.0456	1.0436	1.0479	1.0436	0.19%
Apr 01, 2013	1.0436	1.0412	1.0440	1.0387	0.23%

Australia’s March Employment data is forecast to reveal a 7.5k decline in hiring while the jobless rate remains in place at 5.4 percent. Although this seems relatively tame after the economy added a whopping 71.5k jobs in the prior month, that outcome faced accusations of being over-inflated by a statistical anomaly.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of April 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Apr. 01	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-8	-7	-12
	CNY	Chinese Manufacturing PMI	50.90	52.00	50.10
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	51.60	51.70	51.70
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.3	54.2	54.2
Apr. 02	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Apr. 03	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%		4.2%
	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.18B	-1.00B	-1.22B
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	158K	200K	237K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.4	55.8	56.0
Apr. 04	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	3.1%	2.4%	-2.0%
	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.3%	0.3%	1.2%
	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	385K	350K	357K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3063K	3050K	3071K
Apr. 05	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	88K	200K	268K
	USD	Trade Balance	-43.0B	-44.6B	-44.5B
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.6	34.5	34.5
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	95K	209K	254K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Apr. 08	23:00	NZD	NZIER Business Confidence		20
Apr. 09	02:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		1
	02:30	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	2.4%	3.2%
	02:30	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-1.8%	-1.6%
	02:30	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	-0.6%	1.1%
Apr. 10	01:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		2.00%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-156.0B	-204.0B
Apr. 11	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	-5.0K	71.5K
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	1.1%
Apr. 12	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	1.0%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.1%	0.7%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	78.5	78.6