Big Test for E-mini NASD-100 Bulls at 14821.25 – 15264.75

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching higher early Friday after a strong performance the previous session. In the cash market on Thursday, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.9%, led mostly by a surge in chip stocks. This put the index in a position to post its second-straight winning week.

At 06:59 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14783.25, up 19.50 or +0.13%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $359.59, up $7.76 or +2.21%.

On Thursday, bargain-hunters snapped up beaten-down shares of chipmakers and big growth names as oil prices retreated.

Nvidia Corp’s stock gained 9.8%, leading a rally across the chip sector and hitting its highest level since mid-January. Intel Corp climbed 6.9%.

The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index jumped 5.1% in its biggest daily percentage gain since February 15, while it remains down about 10% for the year so far. Apple shares rose for an eighth consecutive day after getting hammered earlier this month.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 14814.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 12942.50 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index begins today’s session inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is 16700.00 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14821.25 to 15264.75 is the primarily upside target. Trader reaction to this area will determine the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 15261.25 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14375.50 to 14101.75 is support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14763.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14763.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the main 50% level at 14821.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at 15261.25 to 15264.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14763.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 14375.50. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at 14101.75.

Side Notes

A close below 14763.75 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction.

Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 14821.25 to 15264.75. Aggressive counter-trend traders may show up in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.