Bitcoin and Ethereum Weekly Market Outlook: Nvidia Earnings, PCE Data in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the broader crypto market survived a major downside catalyst last week. This week, traders anticipate high volatility as they watch the upcoming Nvidia earnings and January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports.

Bitcoin, Ethereum Markets Weekly Recap

The hack of crypto exchange Bybit turned out to be the biggest in the market’s history after losing nearly $1.50 billion to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. Immediate selloffs were visible on the day it happened, but bulls bought the local dips on a proactive response from the Bybit team.

Despite the major incident, Bitcoin and Ethereum traded inside their prevailing sideways range, as indicated in their last weekly analysis. It suggests that most traders viewed the dip as an opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

Other key events from the crypto market last week include:

• Metaplanet bought $26 million in Bitcoin, increasing holdings to over 2K BTC.
• FTX began $1.2 billion repayments, with plans for $16 billion creditor repayments and $2.06 billion in SOL unlocking.
• SEC acknowledged the filing for Bitwise’s spot XRP ETF and is seeking public feedback on approving options for trading with Grayscale and Bitwise Ethereum ETFs.
• SEC also acknowledged spot Litecoin ETF applications.
• Franklin Templeton launched the Bitcoin and Ether index ETF.
• SEC confirmed it would dismiss the enforcement case against Coinbase pending approval.

From global markets:

• S&P Services PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in 25 months, signaling a potential economic slowdown.
• Retail Sales data came in weaker than expected, indicating a cooling in consumer spending.
• Walmart issued cautious forward guidance, suggesting that consumer behavior may shift due to financial pressures.
• Discussions around potential U.S. trade tariffs intensified, adding uncertainty to global markets.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes revealed a cautious stance, stating that:
  • The committee is “well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook.”
  • The federal funds rate “may not be far above its neutral level,” suggesting policymakers see limited room for further hikes.
  • Trade and immigration policies were cited as potential barriers to the disinflation process.

What to Watch This Week: PCE, NVidia Reports

The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for January could be a major event for crypto markets, influencing Federal Reserve policy and risk sentiment.

Key Crypto Market Considerations:

• A hotter-than-expected PCE print could delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring Bitcoin.
• Higher interest rates typically reduce risk appetite, leading to lower liquidity in crypto markets and potential outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
• Conversely, softer inflation could boost rate-cut expectations, supporting Bitcoin’s bullish trend.

Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to release its fiscal Q4 earnings on February 26, 2025, and analysts anticipate strong results driven by AI and GPU advancements.

Note that:

• Analysts predict a positive earnings report, supported by Blackwell GPU’s success and continued AI-driven demand.
• Some price targets for Nvidia’s stock have been raised to $190.
• Nvidia’s stock has shown a high correlation (0.80+) with Bitcoin over both 90-day and 52-week periods.

• A strong Nvidia earnings report could boost overall risk sentiment, potentially driving higher Bitcoin and altcoins—especially AI tokens.
• If Nvidia stock underperforms, it could dampen crypto investor confidence, leading to short-term volatility.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis This Week

Note the summary of Bitcoin’s on-chain and market sentiment indicators as of Feb. 24.

• Exchange Netflow Total Increased → Higher than the last 7-day average could indicate incoming sell pressure.
• Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) High → Market in the “belief phase,” which can precede distribution.
• Binary CDD Low → Long-term holders are not moving their coins, indicating holding behavior.
• aSOPR High → Profit-taking is happening, which may create selling pressure.
• Coinbase Premium Negative → Low buying pressure from U.S. investors.
• Fund Premium Positive → High ETF and fund buying activity, suggesting institutional interest.
• Korea Premium High → Strong buying pressure from Korean retail traders can sometimes signal local market overheating.

Overall Market Implication

• Mixed signals—institutional demand remains strong (fund premium up), but retail traders are profit-taking (aSOPR high).
• Lower U.S. buying pressure (negative Coinbase Premium) could mean weaker momentum from Western investors.
• Korean retail buying pressure is high, which has historically led to volatility.
• The market is in a belief phase (high NUPL), which could mean either continuation or an upcoming correction.

Ethereum On-Chain Analysis This Week

Note the summary of Ethereum’s on-chain and market sentiment indicators as of Feb. 24.

• Exchange Netflow Total Increased → Higher than the last 7-day average, indicating possible selling pressure.
• Korea Premium High → Strong buying pressure from Korean retail traders can sometimes indicate local market overheating.
• Fund Premium Low → Decreased fund/ETF buying pressure, suggesting lower institutional demand.
• Coinbase Premium High → Increased buying pressure from U.S. investors, a positive signal for demand.

Overall market sentiment

• Ethereum shows mixed signals.
• Exchange reserves are decreasing, and U.S. investors are increasing buying pressure (Coinbase Premium High), suggesting potential accumulation.
• However, Korean retail traders are driving demand, which historically aligns with market tops and corrections.
• Institutional demand (fund premium) is low, which could limit further upside momentum unless sentiment shifts.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Double Top Hints at Continued Selloff

Bitcoin is showing bearish signals as a double-top pattern emerges around $108,364, indicating a potential downside if support at $91,659 fails. Currently trading at $93,956 (-2.40%), Bitcoin faces selling pressure near the 50-day EMA ($97,541).

A breakdown below the neckline could trigger a drop toward $77,509, aligning with a key demand zone. Meanwhile, the RSI at 39.43 is nearing a breakdown level, signaling weakening momentum.

To invalidate the bearish setup, bulls must reclaim $97,500-$100,000; otherwise, Bitcoin risks further downside.

Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bear Flag Points to More Losses

Ethereum is flashing bearish signals as a bear flag pattern develops on the daily chart, hinting at a possible continuation of its recent downtrend. Currently, ETH is trading at $2,643, down 6.30%, struggling below the 50-day EMA ($2,954) and 200-day EMA ($3,050).

A breakdown from the flag’s lower trendline could trigger a sharp drop toward $2,118, the measured target based on the prior downtrend. The RSI at 41.45 is near oversold territory, suggesting weak momentum.

To invalidate the bearish setup, Ethereum must break above the flag’s upper resistance (~$2,800) and reclaim key moving averages. Until then, downside risks remain elevated.