Bitcoin: Break $60K? US Jobs Report and ETF Trends Could Determine the Next Move

Bitcoin Dips Below $60,000

On Thursday, October 3, BTC advanced by 0.22%, partially recovering a 0.33% loss from Wednesday, to close at $60,805. Notably, BTC dipped below $60,000 for the first time since September 18. Nevertheless, BTC outperformed the broader crypto market, which fell by 0.15% to a total market cap of $2.062 trillion.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Outflow Streak

On Wednesday, October 3, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $242.6 million, the largest since September 3. Significantly, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) registered net outflows for only the fourth time since launching on January 11, 2024.

US BTC-spot ETF flow trends from Thursday also signaled a testy Friday session. According to Farside Investors,

• On Thursday, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $58.0 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $37.2 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had zero net flows.
• Bitwise Bitcoin (BITB) saw net inflows of $2.6 million.
• Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) recorded net inflows of $2.4 million.

Excluding IBIT flows, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $90.2 million. US economic indicators further reduced expectations for a 50-basis point November Fed rate, impacting demand for riskier assets, including US BTC-spot ETFs.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut in November fell from 35.2% (Wednesday) to 32.8% (Thursday).

US Services Activity Accelerates in September

On Thursday, service sector data fueled expectations of a soft US economic landing. The crucial ISM Services PMI increased from 51.5 in August to 54.9 in September. An uptrend in new orders signaled a robust services sector that accounts for almost 80% of the US economy. However, a decline in employment tempered the global markets’ response to the otherwise upbeat data.

Other stats included the weekly jobless claims, which increased modestly from 219k (week ending September 21) to 225k (week ending September 28).

Middle East Conflict: Oil Prices Reflect Market Sentiment

On Thursday, WTI oil rallied above $73 amid concerns over an Israeli response to Iran’s missile strike. US President Joe Biden said that discussions were ongoing about support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities. The escalation in the Middle East conflict could impact investor appetite for US BTC-spot ETFs, possibly affecting BTC supply-demand trends.

The US equity markets saw relatively modest losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index slipping by 0.04%. The Middle East and Friday’s looming US Jobs Report remain crucial points of focus.

US Jobs Report and BTC Price Impact

On Friday, October 4, the crucial US Jobs Report will draw interest. Tighter labor market conditions may sink bets on a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut.

Economists expect the US unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2% in September, with nonfarm payrolls to increase by 140k.

Rising expectations of an Israeli attack and fading bets on a 50-basis point Fed rate hike could push BTC below $60,000. US BTC-spot ETF flow trends could be pivotal.

Investors should remain alert to crucial US economic indicators and updates from the Middle East. Traders may also want to monitor ETF inflows closely in the coming days as they could impact short-term demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovers below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA, confirming bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A break above the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $64,000 resistance level and $65,000 level. Furthermore, a breakout from $65,000 may signal a move toward the September 27 high of $66,520.

Investors should consider the US economic calendar, news from the Middle East, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a drop below the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA could bring $57,500 into play. A fall through $57,500 may signal a fall toward $55,000.

With a 45.22 14-day RSI reading, BTC could drop to $55,000 before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sits well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.

An ETH breakout from the $2,403 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, a break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward the $2,664 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below $2,250 could signal a fall toward the $2,124 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 38.64, indicates an ETH drop to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.