Bitcoin (BTC) Hits Reverse as the West Hits Russia with SWIFT Move

Key Insights:

• A 2-day winning streak came to an end for Bitcoin (BTC) on Saturday
• News of the West removing Russian banks from SWIFT and continued fighting has weighed
• Technical indicators are bearish, with Bitcoin in the red in the early hours

It was a mixed day for Bitcoin (BTC) on Saturday. A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin visit $40,000 for the first time since last Sunday. Bitcoin struck an early morning day high of $40,228 before sliding to a late morning low of $38,606.

Following a 2.31% gain on Friday, Bitcoin slipped by 0.27% to end the day at $39,135.

It was a mixed session for the rest of the crypto top 10.

LUNA rallied by 6.74% to lead the way, with AVAX (+0.98%) and ETH (+0.40%) also finding support to buck the broader market trend.

SOL (-2.71%) and XRP (-2.36%) led the way down, with ADA (-1.22%) and BNB (-0.35%) also struggling.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Continues Upswing

On Saturday, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index fell from 27/100 to 26/100. This morning, the index remained steady at 26/100, avoiding a return to the “Extreme Fear” zone.

For the Bitcoin bulls, the index will need to move back through to 50/100 to bring $50,000 levels back into play for Bitcoin. A fall through to sub-20/100 would deliver sub-$30,000 levels.

NASDAQ 100 Mini and Bitcoin (BTC) Correlation to Continue

The correlation between the NASDAQ 100 Mini and Bitcoin will likely resume in the coming week. Bitcoin struggled for direction on Saturday, with news updates on the Russian invasion and further moves by the West to cripple the Russian government market negative.

Bitcoin Price Action

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 1.13% to $38,394. Bitcoin’s early downside was modest relative to the broader market, however. AVAX (-3.61%), LUNA (-3.24%), SOL (-3.09%), and XRP (-3.00%) were deep in the red in the early hours.

Technical Indicators

Bitcoin will need to move through the First Major Support level at $38,418 and the $39,323 pivot to make a run on the First Major Resistance Level at $40,040. Bitcoin would need broader market support to break out from $39,500.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level at $40,945 and $41,000 levels would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $42,567.

Failure to move through the First Major Support Level and pivot would bring the Second Major Support Level at $37,701 into play. Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, Bitcoin should avoid the Third Major Support Level at $36,079.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (above), it is a bearish signal. Bitcoin has fallen through 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA has pulled back from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs this morning. A further pullback would bring sub-$38,000 into play.

A move through the 50-day EMA at the $38,900 level would provide some support.