Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Above $60K Despite ETF Outflows and Middle East Tensions

Bitcoin Holds Above $60,000

On Saturday, October 5, BTC slipped by 0.05%, after a 2.14% rally from the previous session, to close at $62,072. BTC held above the crucial $60,000 level on rising expectations of a soft US economic landing. BTC mirrored the broader crypto market, which declined by 0.09% to a market cap of $2.110 trillion.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Outflow Streak Ends

On Thursday, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net outflow streak to three consecutive sessions, totaling $54.2 million. However, investors reacted positively to Friday’s US Jobs Report, which signaled a resilient US labor market.

According to Farside Investors:

• On Friday, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $13.9 million.
• However, Bitwise Bitcoin (BITB) saw net inflows of $15.3 million, while Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $13.6 million
• Four issuers reported net inflows, while iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had zero net flows.

Despite Friday’s net inflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market had net outflows of $274.3 million in the week ending October 4. Flow trends for the week left BTC in negative territory on Saturday.

Middle East Conflict in Focus

An escalation in the Middle East conflict impacted demand for riskier assets, including BTC-spot ETFs. This weekend, reports of further bombings in Beirut could raise fears of a wider regional conflict.

A marked decline in demand for riskier assets, including BTC-spot ETFs, could signal a BTC drop below $60,000. Conversely, speculation about a possible ceasefire could tilt supply and demand in BTC’s favor, potentially pushing BTC toward $70,000.

WTI oil price trends could provide investors clues on market sentiment toward the Middle East conflict. Higher oil prices may indicate an increasing risk of supply disruption from an escalation in the conflict. Conversely, falling prices may signal easing fears of a wider regional conflict.

Oil prices surged by 9% this week amidst fears of Israel and the US targeting Iranian oil facilities. In contrast, BTC was down 5.59% from Monday, September 30, to Sunday, October 6.

Outlook

Investors should remain alert to crucial US economic indicators and updates from the Middle East. Traders may also want to monitor ETF inflows closely as they could impact short-term demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A break above the $64,000 resistance level would support a move toward the September 27 high of $66,520. Furthermore, a return to $66,520 could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

Investors should consider news from the Middle East, upcoming US economic data, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a fall through the 50-day EMA may indicate a drop to the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA. A break below $57,500 could give the bears a run at $55,000.

With a 50.37 14-day RSI reading, BTC could climb to the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward the $2,664 resistance level. A breakout from the $2,664 resistance level may give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and $3,000.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,403 support level could bring the $2,124 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 43.94, suggests an ETH fall to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.