Bitcoin (BTC) Maintains $65K Support as BlackRock ETF Inflows Hit $499M

Bitcoin Holds onto $65,000 on Supply-Demand Trends

On Saturday, September 28, BTC gained 0.12%, following the 0.95% gain from the previous session, closing at $65,886. BTC outperformed the broader crypto market, which declined by 0.14%, leaving the total market cap at $2.260 trillion.

US BTC-spot ETF Market Inflows Boost BTC Demand

On Saturday, BTC held onto the $65,000 handle as investors considered the recent rebound in US BTC-spot ETF inflows. According to Farside Investors,

• On Friday, September 27, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $203.1 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $123.6 million.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net inflows of $110.8 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) registered inflows of $26.2 million.

On Friday, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $494.4 million, the highest since $886.6 million on June 4. The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to seven sessions.

BlackRock Dismisses Amendment to Coinbase Agreement for Inflow Surge

BlackRock (BLK) downplayed the significance of the recent amendment to the Coinbase (COIN) Prime Broker Agreement. In a Bloomberg Interview, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock Head of Digital Assets, commented,

“Frankly, nothing of significance has changed here. What we do constantly with Coinbase, just like all our other service providers, is there’s an operational fine-tuning and optimization of models as you get into, you know, we’re now eight months basically into these crypto ETFs. So, this is really a normal course update as we refine things. We filed a handful of other amendments in the last eight months. This one just happened to get some traction for some reason.”

Mitchnick did not address rumors about Coinbase possibly buying paper BTC or BTC IOUs.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on the recent coverage of the BlackRock amendment, stating,

“A) the custodian doesn’t determine the flows. The end investors do. B) Fidelity saw inflows too, and they don’t use Coinbase. Instead of false claims to scapegoat, you should be profusely thanking BlackRock, the ETFs, and Coinbase for saving your bags and undoing much of the reputational damage inflicted by SBF.”

On September 23, news of the BlackRock amendment filing coincided with a demand upswing for BTC-spot ETFs, particularly IBIT. Before news of the filing with the SEC, IBIT had net inflows of $6.7 million from September 2 to September 20. In the week ending September 27, IBIT recorded net inflows of $499 million.

Bets on a US Soft Landing and 50-Basis Point Fed Rate Cut Fuel BTC-spot ETF Demand

Recent US economic indicators raised expectations of a soft US economic landing. Moreover, Friday’s softer US inflation figures fueled speculation about a possibly 50-basis point November Fed rate cut. Sentiment toward the US economy and the Fed rate path drove buyer demand for riskier assets, supporting the BTC return to $65,000.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut increased from 50.4% (September 20) to 53.3% (September 27).

US Labor Market, Services Sector, and BTC Supply-Demand Trends in Focus

Looking ahead, the US ISM Services PMI and Jobs Report could further influence the Fed rate path and sentiment toward the US economy.

A resilient services sector and a steady unemployment rate could bolster expectations of a soft US economic landing. Furthermore, Friday’s softer inflation figures could allow the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in November to navigate the narrow path to a soft US landing.

Fed Chair Powell will speak on Monday, September 30, possibly giving more insight into the Fed’s interest rates plans.

Support for US BTC-spot ETFs could push BTC toward $70,000. However, investors should consider Mt. Gox repayments to creditors that may counter US BTC-spot ETF inflows. Oversupply risk could push BTC down toward $60,000.

Investors should remain alert, with upcoming US economic data, US BTC-spot ETF flows, and Mt. Gox transfers likely to affect buyer demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovers comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A return to the September 27 high of $66,517 could signal a move toward $67,500. Furthermore, a breakout from $67,500 may bring the $69,000 resistance level and $70,000 into play.

Investors should consider US economic indicators, Mt. Gox transfers, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a drop below $65,000 could signal a fall toward the $64,000 support level. A break below the $64,000 support level may give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level.

With a 66.15 14-day RSI reading, BTC could climb to $67,500 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remains above the 50-day EMA while hovering below the 200-day EMA, confirming bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price trends.

An ETH return to $2,800 could support a move toward the $200-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 200-day EMA may give the bulls a run at the $3,033 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,664 support level and the 50-day EMA could signal a fall toward the $2,403 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 59.47, suggests an ETH move to the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.