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Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: BTC Holds Strong at $62K Amid US Labor Market Caution
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Key Points:
- Bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 0.24% on Monday, July 1, closing at $62,894.
- Caution prevailed on Monday as investors awaited crucial US economic indicators that could dictate the Fed rate path.
- US labor market data, Fed Chair Powell, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends require investor consideration on Tuesday, July 2.
In this article:
Could a significant decline in US JOLTs job openings lead to increased investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut and a rally in bitcoin (BTC)?
BTC Holds onto $62,000 Level as the Focus Returns to the Fed
On Monday, July 1, BTC advanced by 0.24%. Following a 2.88% gain from Sunday, June 30, BTC ended the session at $62,894.
Weaker-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers supported buyer demand for BTC.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 in June. Furthermore, the ISM Manufacturing Employment PMI dropped below the crucial 50 level, falling from 51.1 to 49.3.
Although the manufacturing sector accounts for less than 30% of the US economy, the employment figures corresponded with recent trends in jobless claims.
Labor Market Data Could Be Crucial For BTC Price Action
Arch Capital Global Chief Economist Parker Ross reacted to the jobless claims report for the week ending June 29, saying:
“Continuing claims of 1,839k (sa) surprised more meaningfully to the upside for the week ending June 15 (1,828k cons) but was just above my estimate of 1,835k. […]. Continuing claims still reflect a more substantial softening of the labor market.”
Weaker labor market conditions might impact wage growth, potentially reducing disposable income and dampening demand-driven inflation. Such an environment could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate cuts.
BTC reacted to the ISM survey-based data, rising to a session high of $63,845 before retreating below the $63,000 handle.
Despite the weaker labor market indicators, the chances of a September Fed rate cut improved marginally. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates unchanged in September slipped from 35.9% to 35.2% on Monday.
The numbers highlighted the limited influence of the US manufacturing sector on Fed monetary policy.
The US JOLTs Job Openings Report (Tues), weekly Jobless Claims (Wed), and US Jobs Report (Fri) will likely influence BTC price trends more.
Will investors consider the JOLTs Job Openings and weekly Jobless Claims data or hold out for the US Jobs Report (Fri)?
The US BTC-spot ETF market could reflect investor sentiment toward the Fed rate path.
US BTC-Spot ETF Market Eyes Five-Day Inflow Streak
On Monday, July 1, the US BTC-spot ETF market headed for a five-day inflow streak.
According to Farside Investors,
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported zero net flows on Monday after outflows of $27.2 million on Friday, June 28.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net inflows of about $40.0 million.
Data for the remaining US BTC-spot ETFs were unavailable at the time of writing.
Bitwise Invest CEO Hunger Horsely commented on BTC and BITB inflows for Monday, stating,
“$40,000,000 approx inflow into BITB today. Bitcoin efficiently purchased. All of us at Bitwise have a singular focus on this asset class. Grateful to investors entrusting us to steward their assets. It empowers us to advocate for the space. 2024 is the year Bitcoin enters the mainstream. Onward —.”
Will this month see BTC strike a new all-time high?
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained below the 50-day EMA but sat above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term signals but bullish longer-term trends.
A BTC move through the $64,000 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move to the $69,000 resistance level.
US labor market data, US BTC-spot ETF market flow data, and Fed chatter require consideration.
On the other hand, a break below the $60,365 support level would bring the 200-day EMA into play.
With a 43.99 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH hovered below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A break above the 50-day EMA and the $3,480 resistance level could signal a move to the $3,600 handle. Selling pressure could increase at the $3,480 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.
US ETH-spot ETF-related chatter needs consideration.
Conversely, an ETH drop through the $3,244 support level could bring the 200-day EMA and the $3,033 support level into play.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 46.94, suggests an ETH drop below the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.
About the Author
Bob Masonauthor
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.
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