Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: BTC-Spot ETFs Face Outflows in April Despite Halving

BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Trends Send Bearish Price Signals

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.60% on Sunday (April 28). Following a 0.37% loss on Saturday (April 27), BTC ended the session at $63,166. Significantly, BTC extended its losing streak to three sessions.

Investor reaction to US economic indicators, including inflation numbers, shifted expectations of multiple Fed interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of the Fed leaving interest rates at 5.50% in September have risen from 6.5% (March 28) to 42.6% (April 26).

In the week ending April 26, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows for the third consecutive week. Flow trends aligned with the falling bets on a September Fed interest rate cut.

Significantly, three consecutive weeks of net outflows occurred despite Bitcoin Halving on April 20. According to Farside Investors, the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $328.0 million in the week ending April 26.

With two trading sessions remaining for April, the BTC-spot ETF market has total April net outflows of $130.8 million going into the Monday (April 29) session. If demand conditions fail to improve, the BTC-spot ETF market could see monthly net outflows for the first time since launching on January 11.

Investor sensitivity to BTC-spot ETF market flow trends could intensify this week. US labor market data and the Federal Reserve are focal points. On Wednesday (May 1), the FOMC press conference will allow the markets to adjust their expectations of multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts.

Beyond the US BTC-spot ETF market, Hong Kong BTC and ETH-spot ETFs will begin trading on April 30. Inflow trends could offset the effect of recent outflow trends in the US market.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared his views about the HK crypto-spot ETF market, saying,

“HK spot bitcoin/ether ETFs officially approved to begin trading on April 30th. Fees are 30bps, 60bps, and 99bps, which is on avg lower than we thought, good sign.”

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC move through the $64,000 resistance level would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could signal a move to the $69,000 resistance level.

On Monday, the US economic calendar and BTC-spot ETF market flow data need consideration.

Conversely, a BTC drop below the $60,365 support level would bring the $58,000 handle into play.

With a 42.94 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop to the $58,000 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH held above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs affirmed the bullish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $3,400 handle would give the bulls a run at the $3,480 resistance level. A return to the $3,500 handle would support a move toward the $3,835 resistance level.

Conversely, an ETH break below the 50-day EMA and the $3,244 support level could give the bear a run at the $3,033 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 51.47 suggests an ETH return to the $3,500 handle before entering overbought territory.