Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Demand-Supply Dynamics as Bitcoin Halving Looms

External Market Forces Impact BTC and the BTC-Spot ETF Market

BTC slid by 3.97% on Wednesday. Reversing a 0.68% gain from Tuesday, BTC ended the session at $61,350.

BTC-spot market flow data impacted buyer demand for BTC. According to Farside Investors, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $58.0 million on Tuesday, April 16. Significantly, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows for the third successive session. Flow data for the individual issuers signaled a marked decline in buyer appetite.

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $25.8 million, down from $73.4 million on April 15.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC) saw net inflows of $1.4 million after a zero net flow session on April 15.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows fall from $110 million to $79.4 million.

BTC-spot ETF market conditions did not improve on Wednesday, April 17. According to preliminary figures,

• GBTC saw net outflows of $133 million.
• FBTC had a zero net low session.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $42.7 million, up from net outflows of $12.9 million on April 16.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $7.3 million.
• Excluding IBIT flow data, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $183.1 million on April 17.

Several factors are likely influencing BTC-spot ETF flow trends that include,

• BTC Halving: The continued reversal from the March all-time high of $73,808 created uncertainty about the impact of the Halving on BTC price trends.
• The US Federal Reserve: US economic indicators forced investors to recalibrate the Fed rate path. Investors cut bets on the numbers of Fed rate cuts, impacting buyer demand for BTC.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly impacted the appetite for BTC and the broader crypto market.
• BTC-spot ETF flow data reflected sentiment toward the Fed and geopolitics, suggesting a weakening demand environment.

Supply and Demand and the Bitcoin Halving

A higher-for-longer Fed rate path, tensions in the Middle East, and weaker demand via the BTC-spot ETF market could dilute the effect of the Halving on the demand-supply dynamic.

On Wednesday, hopes of a demand surge from China also faded, likely contributing to the losses. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared his views about mainland investor access to HK BTC and Ether-spot ETFs, saying,

‘Mainland China investors probably won’t be eligible to buy Hong Kong-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs as they are barred from buying virtual assets. There are some other routes they could try but they less used channels and could be shut down, via note from Bloomberg ETF Analyst Rebecca Sin.’

Amidst waning demand, the Bitcoin Halving loomed.

Bitcoin and the Halving Event Countdown

According to the Bitcoin Halving Countdown Clock, the Bitcoin Halving will happen on April 20, 2024.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC pulled back further from the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC break above the $64,000 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

On Thursday, Halving-related news, BTC-spot ETF flow data, Fed commentary, and geopolitics need consideration.

Conversely, a BTC drop below the $60,365 support level could signal a fall toward the $58,000 handle.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 38.82, BTC could break below the $60,365 support level before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while hovering above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,033 resistance level would support a move to the $3,244 resistance level. A return to the $3,244 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,900 handle could signal a drop to the 200-day EMA and the $2,664 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 38.42 indicates an ETH fall to the $2,800 handle before entering oversold territory.