Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: ETF Outflows and Mt. Gox Stockpiles – A Risk to BTC Stability?

BTC Faces a Crucial Phase

On Saturday, August 10, BTC advanced by 0.19%, closing at $61,049 after falling by 1.34%, on Friday, August 9. The total crypto market cap advanced by 0.33%, rising to a total market cap of $2.088 trillion.

Supply-Demand Challenges

BTC moved within relatively tight ranges for the second consecutive session on Saturday. Investor sentiment toward supply-demand trends likely left BTC in a sideways move after Thursday’s 12% rally.

On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that the court had ordered FTX and Alameda to pay $12.7 billion to their creditors.

Hopes of the creditors using their proceeds to enter the crypto market likely contributed to Saturday’s gains. However, oversupply risks persist. According to Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox, and the US government sit on sizeable BTC stockpiles.

As of August 11, Mt. Gox had 46,164 BTC ($2.82 billion) remaining for creditor repayment. BTC could come under intense selling pressure if the creditors flood crypto exchanges with sell orders.

The US government is a more significant threat to BTC price stability, holding 203,239 BTC ($12.43 billion). BTC remains sensitive to the US government’s BTC transfers.

Amid lingering oversupply risk, US economic indicators may influence BTC and BTC-spot ETF demand in the coming week.

US Economic Calendar and US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows

US inflation and labor market data could influence sentiment toward the US economy and the Fed rate path.

Softer-than-expected inflation numbers (Tues/Wed) could fuel investor bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts. A dovish Fed rate path may boost buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs and BTC. Conversely, a spike in US jobless claims (Thurs) could rekindle fears of a US economic recession. Recession fears would adversely affect BTC-spot ETF and BTC demand.

Moreover, expectations of a US recession and a more dovish Fed rate path could push the USD/JPY toward 140, possibly triggering another Yen carry trade unwind. BTC could face intense selling pressure in case of a Yen carry trade unwind. On Monday, August 5, BTC slid by 6.91% because of the effects of the Yen carry trade unwind on the global financial markets.

Uncertainty about the US economy and the Fed rate path tested buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. In the week ending August 9, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $167.0 million.

Possible Price Trends

We enter a pivotal week ahead for the global financial markets. Investors face several BTC price trend scenarios:

• Upbeat US labor market data but softer inflation: BTC may move toward $70,000.
• Softer inflation and spike in US initial jobless claims: BTC could drop below $60,000.
• Yen carry trade unwind: BTC may fall toward $55,000.

Investors should remain alert after the BTC-spot ETF outflows and possible changes to supply-demand trends. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposures to BTC and the broader crypto market.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat above the 200-day EMA while hovering below the 50-day EMA, confirming bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC breakout from the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $64,000 resistance level. Furthermore, a break above the $64,000 resistance level could signal a rise to the $69,000 resistance level.

Sentiment toward BTC supply-demand trends and BTC-spot ETF market-related news requires consideration.

On the other hand, a break below the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA could bring the 200-day EMA into play. A drop below the 200-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $52,884 support level.

With a 48.23 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may fall to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,664 resistance level could support a move toward $2,800. A breakout from $2,800 could give the bulls a run at the $3,033 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below $2,600 could bring the $2,403 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 38.74, suggests an ETH drop to the $2,403 support level before entering oversold territory.