Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Fed Rate Sentiment Shifts, Influencing BTC-Spot ETF Flows

US Personal Income and Expenditures and the Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.22% on Friday (April 26). Reversing a 0.36% gain from Thursday (April 25), BTC ended the session at $63,779.

On Friday, investors reacted to the US Personal Income and Expenditures Report and Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers.

The US Core PCE Price Index increased 2.8% year-on-year in March after rising by 2.8% in February. Economists forecast the Index to advance by 2.6%. Moreover, personal income and spending increased by 0.5% and 0.8% in March, respectively. Economists forecast personal income and spending to rise by 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.

Upward personal income/spending trends and sticky inflation affected investor bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts.

Finalized Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for April also influenced sentiment toward the Fed rate path. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined from 79.4 to 77.2 in April. However, the Michigan Inflation Expectations Index climbed from 2.9% to 3.2%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates unchanged in June increased from 81.7% to 88.9% in the week ending April 26. Furthermore, the chances of the Fed standing pat in September rose from 31.6% to 42.6%.

Investor sentiment toward the Fed interest rate trajectory likely influenced BTC-spot ETF market flow trends.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Sees Net Outflows for the Third Successive Day

BTC-spot ETF market flow data continued to signal a weakening demand environment.

According to Farside Investors,

• GBTC saw net outflows of $139.4 million on Thursday (April 25), up from $130.4 million on Wednesday (April 24).
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $22.6 million on Thursday (April 25), the first net outflow since launching on January 11.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw zero net flows for the second successive session on Thursday (April 25).
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $31.3 million after registering net inflows of $4.2 million on Wednesday (April 24).
• The BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $217.6 million on Thursday (April 25), up from total net outflows of $120.6 million on Wednesday (April 24).

BTC-spot ETF market conditions did not improve on Friday (April 26). According to preliminary Friday (April 26) numbers from Farside Investors,

• GBTC saw net outflows of $82.4 million on Friday.
• FBTC registered net outflows of $2.8 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net outflows of $3.8 million.
• ARKB recorded net inflows of $5.4 million.
• IBIT saw zero net flows for the third successive session.

The BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $83.6 million, impacting buyer demand for BTC on Saturday (April 27). Perhaps the only consolation was IBIT avoiding net outflows.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC break above the $64,000 would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

On Saturday, the US BTC-spot ETF flow data needs consideration.

Conversely, a BTC drop below the $62,500 handle could signal a BTC fall to the $60,365 support level.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 42.58, BTC could fall through the $60,365 support level before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the $3,244 resistance level and the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $3,480 resistance level.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $3,033 support level would bring the $2,800 handle and 200-day EMA into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 43.61 suggests an ETH fall through the $3,033 support level before entering oversold territory.