On Sunday, June 23, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 1.70%. Reversing a 0.14% gain from Saturday, June 22, BTC ended the week down 5.19% to $63,159. Significantly, BTC resumed its downward trajectory, ending the day below the $64,000 handle for the first time since May 14.
Going into the weekend, investor anxiety over the Fed interest rate trajectory intensified selling pressure.
The US BTC-spot ETF market reflected the mood, with weekly total net outflows of $544.1 million for the week ending June 21.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) could not change the mood despite announcing the acquisition of 11,931 BTC on June 20. The purchase was significant considering the US BTC-spot ETF outflow trend. The BTC purchase for approximately $786 million offset the total US BTC-spot ETFs for the week.
The lack of a positive market reaction to the news highlighted the bearish sentiment. On Sunday, BTC declined for the sixth time in seven sessions and was down almost 7% in June. Historically, investors reacted favorably to MicroStrategy announcements of acquiring BTC.
This week, the US BTC-spot ETF market could face a stern test. US economic indicators may influence investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut and buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs.
Additionally, the US BTC-spot ETF market could face competition as investors anticipate the launch of US ETH-spot ETFs.
Last week, US ETH-spot ETF issuers submitted S-1 amendments fueling expectations of an imminent US-ETH-spot ETF market launch.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas anticipate an SEC approval before the US Fourth of July holiday. However, Balchunas does not expect the US ETH-spot ETF market to enjoy the same level of success.
Balchunas recently said,
“I do still think eth will be lucky to get 20% of the aum btc etfs have. We’ll see tho..”
Technical Analysis
BTC remained comfortably below the 50-day EMA but held above the 200-day EMA, affirming the bearish near-term signals but bullish longer-term signals.
A BTC breakout from the $64,000 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward the $69,000 resistance level.
On Monday, US economic indicators, Fed chatter, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow data require investor consideration.
On the other hand, a drop below the $62,000 handle could signal a drop to the $60,365 support level.
With a 30.92 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC drop below the $62,000 level before entering oversold territory.
ETH stayed below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
A break above the $3,480 resistance level and the 50-day EMA could give bulls a run at the $3,600 handle. An ETH breakout from the $3,600 handle could signal a move to the $3,835 resistance level.
US ETH-spot ETF-related chatter needs consideration.
Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,244 support level could signal a drop to the 200-day EMA and the $3,033 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 40.01, indicates an ETH drop to the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.