On Tuesday, June 25, bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 2.52%. Partially reversing a 4.48% tumble from Monday, BTC ended the session at $61,848.
Investors reacted to the US economic calendar, with US consumer confidence numbers supporting a September Fed rate cut.
The CB Consumer Confidence Index fell from 101.3 to 100.4 in June. Weaker consumer confidence could signal a pullback in consumer spending and damper demand-driven inflationary pressures. Significantly, BTC rose to a session high of $62,459 in response to the data before returning below the $62,000 handle.
Despite the softer consumer confidence numbers, investors may need to wait until Friday for a clearer view of the Fed’s rate path. According to the FedWatch Tool, the chances of the Fed holding interest rates unchanged in September increased from 31.5% to 33.3% on Tuesday. One week earlier, the probability of the Fed standing pat stood at 33.0%
Could investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut drive buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs?
US inflation numbers on Friday could prove pivotal to near-term BTC price trends.
The US economic indicators provided the US BTC-spot ETF market relief. US BTC-spot ETF market inflows contributed to BTC gains in the Wednesday morning session.
According to Farside Investors:
Significantly, the US BTC-spot ETF market ended a seven-day outflow streak, supporting a positive start to the Wednesday session.
BTC remained below the 50-day EMA but held above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term signals but bullish longer-term signals.
A BTC move through the $64,000 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could bring the $69,000 resistance level into play.
SEC activity, the US economic calendar, and BTC-spot ETF flow data require investor consideration on Wednesday.
On the other hand, a drop below the $60,365 support level could bring the 200-day EMA into play.
With a 34.69 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop to the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.
ETH hovered below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
A break above the $3,480 resistance level and the 50-day EMA would support a move to the $3,600 handle. Selling pressure could intensify at the $3,480 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level. A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward the $3,835 resistance level.
US ETH-spot ETF-related chatter needs consideration.
Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,244 support level could bring the 200-day EMA and the $3,033 support level into play.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 42.09, indicates an ETH break below the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.